One Cold Day, More On Deck November 19, 2010

***Watch the winter forecast on WISN 12 News Tuesday at 10pm!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  I’m getting very excited for next Tuesday, as our winter forecast will be issued! 

Until then, there is plenty to talk about as we have lots of ups and downs in the forecast.  The first drop in temperatures will greet us on Saturday.  The coldest air with this push will stay just to our north, but highs in the 30s can be expected on Saturday.  A cold start to the gun-deer season in Wisconsin, but certainy nothing uncommon for this time in November.

Below are the surface observations at 5:43pm Friday.  A couple things of note, the cold front was right near Milwaukee as temps were in the 40s with winds just turning to the west, but behind the front, readings were only in the single digits in Devils Lake, North Dakota!

 

This is a sign of the cold air beginning to build near the U.S. and Canadian border, and all we need is a storm to dislodge a chunk of this very cold air!

2 storm systems are possible in our region in the next 6 days.  The first will arrive Sunday and Monday.  The center of low pressure will track very likely west of Milwaukee.  As discussed in the blog before, this generally means all rain for our area.  A few showers are possible both Sunday and Monday, along with milder high temperatures in the 50s.

Storm #1 will draw in colder air, but the potential for a second storm around Wednesday or Thanksgiving Day will likely draw in the coldest air of the season.  If you remember, back on November 10 in the blog I mentioned that a cold snap was possible on Thanksgiving!

Right now I’m confident that highs will drop into the 20s either on Thanksgiving or the following day.  The big question is will it snow, and how much?  That will take longer to answer, so look back for updates all weekend with the latest data.

I’ll leave you on this blog with the forecast temperature map from the 12Z GFS for late Thanksgiving Day.  Yikes!  20 to 25 degrees over much of southeast Wisconsin.

We will continue to monitor the latest data and have updates on WISN 12 News!

Have a great weekend!

Jeremy Nelson

Wintry Weather Ahead? November 18, 2010

***The Winter Forecast on WISN 12 News next Tuesday at 10pm!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  This has been a very busy week as I am preparing the winter forecast that will air next Tuesday at 10pm on WISN 12.  The pattern is unique once again this year, and I have a feeling that this winter will be much different than last year!

Just a quick update as the models are beginning to not only show a big cold snap for next week, but the potential for a more impressive storm somewhere in the nation’s mid-section is beginning to show up on at least one model.

Below is the surface forecast, and also the 850mb temperature forecast for late Wednesday of next week.  This forecast map is from the 18Z GFS.

This one solution would likely produce snow to the northwest of the low, and in this one snapshot, most of our area is northwest of the low.

Please keep in mind this is just one computer model forecast for 6 days down the road.  This storm will take many different looks between now and then, but one thing looks certain, much colder weather will move in for Thanksgiving.  Right now I have highs forecast in the 20s!  Brrrrrr….

So who wants snow?  Next week could produce the first measurable snow for our area, but will the storm take a favorable track for southeast Wisconsin?  Look for updates on WISN 12 News and right here in the blog!

Have a great day, and please leave your thoughts in the comments section of the blog!

Jeremy Nelson

First the Leonid Meteors, then the cold November 17, 2010

Forgive the brief blog and bad pun. I am under the weather tonight. I sound like Barry White on the air. Cool air moves in tonight, but it is only a brief cool-down before a taste of winter arrives next week. Our high will be lucky to hit 40 tomorrow, but we bounce back to 50 on Friday. If we clear out tonight, and I believe we will, check out the Leonid Meteor Shower.

I want to thank Astronomy magazine for the Leonid picture. Dress warmly if you want to see as many as 20 meteors per hour.  The peak was last night, but we were cloudy. Thursday morning after 3am should be the best chance to see anything.

As for Thanksgiving week, get ready for the coldest air of the season. Jeremy was hinting at this a few weeks ago when talking about the LRC. I will be talking much more about the LRC in future blogs, and yes, what I thought was too good to be true, is actually the real deal. It is pretty amazing. Look for the winter forecast on 12 news at ten next Tuesday night.

As for next week’s cold air, take a look at the GFS forecast for Thanksgiving and beyond.

The above image is a surface temperature forecast for Thanksgiving. This is just the beginning of the cold. By the Saturday after Thanksgiving it gets much colder.

Get ready for highs that may not get out of the teens. Of course, this is still quite a ways out, but the cold air has been building in Canada and it is a matter of time before a stronger trough allows that cold air to rush into the Upper Midwest. Stay tuned.

Mark

More Active Pattern Ahead November 16, 2010

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  I’m excited to announce that our Winter Forecast will air Tuesday, November 23 during our 10pm news!  Mark your calendar now, this will be a winter forecast like you’ve never seen before!

Now onto our current and future weather.  Tuesday’s high of 54 in Milwaukee marked the 13th time this month that highs have reached 50 or higher in Milwaukee.  We are on pace to meet or exceed the number for ALL of last November…which was 17 days at or above 50.

While this month will likely end with average monthly temperatures above average, there is some much colder air that will pay a visit in the months final week!

The first push of colder air will arrive with a quick punch on Thurday.  Nothing uncommon for November, but certainly much colder than we have grown accustomed to this month.  Highs Thursday will top out in the upper 30s to near 40 north of Milwaukee, with low 40s here in the city.  These temps are just a hair below our average of 45 in Milwaukee.

Below is the forecast temperature map for late in the day Thursday.  Just click to enlarge.

The first push of cold air will only last about 36 hours, and already by Friday highs should push back toward 50.  Another storm system will take shape and move our way from Sunday into early next week.  As of this writing, it looks like it would produce mainly rain for southeast Wisconsin, but we’ll keep a close eye on it.

Behind that storm I believe we will see the coldest temperatures of the season.  While this push of cold air may not last long, it would likely produce highs in the 30s for our area!  Below is a surface map for next Tuesday.  The blue lines are 500-1000mb thickness lines.  The lower the number on the blue line, generally the colder the air associated with it.  If you have questions on the map, just ask in the comments section of the blog. 

Along with the cold, the pattern for Thanksgiving week also will send at least 2 storm systems our way, one to start the week and another possible right around Thanksgiving.  The one later in the week is just beginning to show up on the map above over Idaho.  Keep in mind the storm tracks will shift around between now and then, but there is a chance of rain and snow next week, and also the coldest air of the season.

When the winter forecast airs I will discuss some of the active parts of the pattern and what they may mean for our area. 

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

Warm November Continues November 15, 2010

Another November day with sunshine and mild temperatures. Our high today was 53 degrees. Today’s average high is 46 degrees. Ten of fifteen days this month has had highs above average. The nicest part of this November is the unusual amount of sunshine. November is tied with December as the cloudiest month on average. Our temperatures will continue to be above average every day this week except for Thursday.

Last weekend’s big snowstorm that missed us to the west was the first snowstorm of the season in Wisconsin. It may seem early for a storm of this magnitude, but it actually is pretty average for timing in Wisconsin. Take a look at the last 30 years in Wisconsin.

Last year, Wisconsin did not have a major winter storm until December 13, and 14th , however you can see some years had storms as early as the first week of October. SE Wisconsin does not usually get big snowstorms in November, but that changes as we get into December. I want to thank the National Weather Service in Sullivan for the graphic.

The above graphic is very interesting to me. It goes back to the mid 1970s counting the number of major winter storms that hit Wisconsin. I found it pretty surprising to see more major winter storms in the 1990s and 2000s than in the 1970s and 1980s. A winter storm is defined by the following:

1. Snow accumulations of 6 inches or more,

2. Blizzard conditions for 3 hours or more – visibility below 1/4 mile due to falling and/or blowing snow with frequent wind gusts 35 mph or higher,

3. Ice accumulations of 1/4 inch or more in 12 hours or less due to freezing rain

4. Sleet accumulations of 2 inches or more in 12 hours or less,

5. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25-34 mph and intermittent reductions in visibility to less than 1/2 mile resulting in closed roads, etc.

I was surprised that the 1970s had fewer storms. As a kid, I always thought the 1970s were much snowier than the last 20 years. If you have any theories of why, let me know in the comments section.

Finally, I wanted to share the visible satellite image from today.

The areas with snow cover had highs in the 30s today. The surrounding areas had highs around 50. The snow will quickly melt as the week goes on. Thanks for reading.

Mark

Evening Sprinkles/Flurries November 14, 2010

Happy Sunday. Many of you are breathing a sigh of relief after seeing the huge snow totals across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. You snow lovers out there are wishing that low pressure center would have gone farther south and east giving us the snow. Take a look at the following pics and total maps.

This is a picture from the National Weather Service in Duluth. The snow was very heavy and wet and coated everything.

This is from the Sterlings. They are friends of mine living just north of Minneapolis. The picked up 10″ of snow. Take a look at the totals.

This is from the NWS office in Chanhassen, Minnesota.

A thank you to the NWS in Duluth for this graphic. Pretty impressive totals.

In the meantime, we could see our first snowflakes of the season this evening. Here is the current radar image.

Most of the precipitation is only light rain showers right now, but as the evening goes on I would not be surprised to see a few snowflakes mixing in. No accumulation is expected as temps will remain above freezing and ground temperatures are quite warm.

The rest of the week is looking pretty quiet. A few showers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maybe a few snowflakes. Deer hunters are getting excited for next weekend. Gun deer season begins on Saturday. The weekend may bring a few light rain showers with temps in the 40s. A few snowflakes are possible up north. Colder air will work in during Thanksgiving week. More to come as the weekend gets closer. Thanks for reading.

Mark

Weekend Shifts To Cold, Possible Flurries November 13, 2010

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the potential for snow!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  The first winter storm of the season continues across the Midwest at this hour.  No wintry weather in southeast Wisconsin on Saturday, but that could change by later Sunday.  We’ll discuss the timing of a few possible snowflakes in a moment, but first let’s look at the first significant snow totals of the season across the Midwest.

Below is a list of snow reports thru Saturday morning from the NWS in Minneapolis.  Some spots were already near a foot of snow! 

******************************************

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
140 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2010

…SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR FOR TODAYS STORM…

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
——  ———————–  –  ————–   ——-
11.00   EDEN PRAIRIE             MN  HENNEPIN           1030 AM
10.10   NEW HOPE                     MN  HENNEPIN            0102 PM
10.00   AMBOY                           MN  BLUE EARTH       0930 AM
10.00   MANKATO                    MN  BLUE EARTH       0951 AM
10.00   MONTGOMERY           MN  LE SUEUR             1130 AM
10.00   3 N FOREST LAKE      MN  CHISAGO               0104 PM
  9.00   MAPLE GROVE            MN  HENNEPIN           0930 AM
  9.00   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS    MN  HENNEPIN     1243 PM
  8.60   MADELIA                      MN  WATONWAN         1025 AM
  8.50   1 SE CHASKA                MN  CARVER                  0112 PM
  8.00   WSW ST CLAIR            MN  BLUE EARTH        0951 AM
  8.00   WINNEBAGO               MN  FARIBAULT           1010 AM
  8.00   PRIOR LAKE                MN  SCOTT                      1030 AM
  7.90   EDINA                            MN  HENNEPIN             1155 AM
  7.50   6 E MANKATO              MN  BLUE EARTH       0900 AM
  7.50   2 ESE MINNETONKA MN  HENNEPIN            1115 AM
  7.30   BLOOMINGTON           MN  HENNEPIN            1248 PM

*****************************************************

The track of this weekend’s storm just was not favorable for snow in southeast Wisconsin.  For the Milwaukee area, and much of southeast Wisconsin to pick up a pile of snow, the low almost always needs to track somewhere between Chicago and Grand Rapids, MI. 

Below is a surface map from around 2:30pm Saturday afternoon.  This map shows where the surface low was located, NOT in a favored spot for snow in our area.  Notice the cold air wrapping in on the backside of the storm.  East of the low in Milwaukee, it was a mild Saturday with highs in the mid-50s. 

If you have any questions about why the snow occurs on the west to northwest side of the low just let me know.

While southeast Wisconsin will not see accumulating snow, there is a small chance of some flurries Sunday afternoon in our area.  The cold air to the west will continue to push east.  This will turn any sprinkles on Sunday into a few wind swept snowflakes.

The biggest story on Sunday will be the big drop in temperatures.  Highs will be stuck in the low 40s for most areas with lots of clouds.

Below is a temperature forecast map from the 12Z NAM computer model.  Brrrrr!  Notice that areas north of Milwaukee may be stuck in the upper 30s on Sunday.  Just click to enlarge.

For more on the Sunday forecast, watch WISN 12 News and look for updates on Facebook at WeatherWatch 12 and on Twitter: WISN12News

Have a great day!  We’ll be on snowflake watch Sunday afternoon!

Jeremy Nelson

Weekend Storm & First Snowflakes? November 12, 2010

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest weekend forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  Just a reminder to look for the winter forecast coming the week of Thanksgiving here in the blog and on WISN 12 News!

Speaking of winter weather, the first healthy dose of snow may pay parts of the upper Midwest a visit this weekend!  Winter Storm Warnings are in place for parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. 

For southeast Wisconsin, this will be almost entirely a rain event as the low will pass to the west of our area.  That means any precipitation on Saturday will fall in the form of rain showers.  It won’t be an all day rain, but on and off showers are possible later in the morning thru the afternoon.

While southern Wisconsin will stay rain on Saturday, colder air on the backside of the storm will produce heavy wet snow in parts of Minnesota.  The rain/snow line will gradually inch east from Saturday night into Sunday morning.  By late morning or early afternoon the air may be just cold enough to turn over any precipitation of a few snowflakes. 

Below is the precipitation type forecast map from the 12Z GFS.  This shows around midday Sunday the rain/snow line advancing east across southern Wisconsin. 

There certainly is no guarantee we’ll see our first snowflakes this season over the weekend, but at least there is a chance on Sunday.  It will be much more than just snowflakes in parts of the upper Midwest.  Below is a snowfall accumulation map from our in-house computer model.  Where Winter Storm Warnings are in place over Minnesota, 6″+ of snow could fall!

We are heading into a more active part of the weather pattern!  Could the next 2-3 weeks bring southeast Wisconsin its first measurable snow of the season? 

For the latest on the rain, mix, and snow that is possible this weekend.  Watch WISN 12 News and look for updates here in the blog all weekend.

Have a great weekend!

Jeremy Nelson

Chance of Rain Ahead November 11, 2010

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10pm for the latest weather information!

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  I just want to remind everyone to watch for the 2010-11 winter forecast coming the week of Thanksgiving! 

After a string of beautiful Fall days, the weather is about to change.  Afterall, we can’t expect 60s to stick around through November.  The change will bring cooler weather, but nothing really cold…yet.

If you are wondering how many high temperatures we have had in the 60s this month in Milwaukee compared to past November’s, here is your answer.  This info was compiled by the NWS.

 

With the 60s behind us for a while, or maybe even until next Spring, let’s talk more about what’s ahead.  As discussed in yesterday’s blog and on WISN 12 News, a storm is headed our way for the weekend.

The storm will spread clouds across the region Friday, and even some pockets of drizzle or a few sprinkles are possible.  Most of the rain showers will hold off until Saturday though.  And again, it does not look like an all day rain.  But do have the rain gear ready or a plan ’B’ if the rain finds your outdoor plans.

Below is a rainfall forecast for the region from our in-house high resolution computer model.  This rainfall forecast is thru Saturday.  Just click to enlarge.

 

With the center of low pressure either near or just west of Milwaukee, the bulk of the heavier rain should stay in the western part of the state.  At this moment, totals in southeast Wisconsin look to stay under a half inch.

Make sure to watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the weekend.  In the meantime, please feel free to post your thoughts or questions in the comments section of the blog.

I’m working hard on the winter forecast, and again, look for that the week of Thanksgiving!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

Weekend Questions November 10, 2010

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for Milwaukee’s most accurate forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  The fantastic November weather that we have experienced the past 2 days should continue for at least another day or two.  Expect more highs in the 60s!

That is the good news, now to the tricky part of the forecast.  And of course it involves the weekend.  A storm will approach the area Friday Night into Saturday.  With several different computer models to choose from there is a wide array of possibilites heading several days out.

Right now it looks like the main surface low will track west of Milwaukee, but just how far west will have a big impact on the chance of rain.  Let’s start by looking at the latest 12Z GFS forecast for 1 p.m. Saturday.  This model takes the surface low into southwest Wisconsin by afternoon.  Notice the darker green shades which represent a steadier rain, or possible rain/snow mix west of the blue dashed line near Minneapolis.  Around Milwaukee some very light rain or drizzle may occur. 

 

Now model #2, the 12Z NAM.  This forecast takes the slightly stronger low farther west over northeast Iowa.  It is a warmer solution and would keep almost the entire precipitation area rain.  This would indicate a dry morning and early afternoon in Milwaukee.

For right now we are still sticking with a chance of a few showers on Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans, please don’t cancel them this weekend.  And if you are heading to the Wisconsin-Indiana game in Madison Saturday morning, I would at least through the poncho in the car and decide right before going into the game whether to bring it with or not.

At the very least, it looks like another storm that will not bring snow to southeast Wisconsin at this time.  Make sure to watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for the latest data on the weekend!

Before I wrap up this blog, I want to mention that after doing some work on the pattern yesterday, I think there is a good chance that the coldest air of the season will move over our area on or right around Thanksgiving!  Stay tuned!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson