Comments on: Next Snow Chance & February Forecast

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 21:14:07 +0000

Thursday, January 27, 2011 3:10 pm

Hi Jeremy,

2 ½” here in Pleasant Prairie

Tony

By: jeremywisn

jeremywisn — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:48:53 +0000

Don,

The disturbance for later Friday will just give us another ‘little’ snow. The big question for early next week is if the waves in the 500mb flow can phase. The phasing was key for the storms back in January and December. When phasing occurs this taps into the Gulf moisture, and also the cold Canadian air. GFS was still not really on board this morning, Canadian model has a big storm. The NAM is just starting to reach out to early next week.

Jeremy

By: jeremywisn

jeremywisn — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:46:59 +0000

Sue,

Thanks for the total…a little lighter than Milwaukee’s 2.1″.

Jeremy

By: Don

Don — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:43:29 +0000

WW 12 Team –

The most recent “clipper” clipped us here in Reeseville — Dodge County — with 2 1/4″ of snow. This gives us around 36″ for the season. You’re right, Jeremy — even the little snows do add up! {The bigger ones are just more fun to watch!!}

Based on this blog and Wed. night WW 12 10 p.m. forecast, if the “signature storm” is what happens Friday night/Saturday, we’re not in for much?? But if the “signature storm” is Monday/Tuesday, we may get a bigger storm out of it after all??

Eager to read your thoughts in the blog!

Don

By: Sue

Sue — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 19:38:16 +0000

Hi Jeremy,

From this morning’s snow, we got about 1 inch along the lake in Oostburg.

Sue

By: jeremywisn

jeremywisn — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 04:03:43 +0000

The GFS has had a hard time all season:) Yeah, it started the storm on the East Coast back in December. I think the NCEP site is having issues this evening, can’t access it to get the 00Z GFS.

NAM will start to reach the storm in tomorrow’s runs. Should be fun to watch!

Jeremy

By: Steven

Steven — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 03:05:39 +0000

If I remember right, didn’t the GFS have a hard time with this storm in Dec?
Didn’t it start out with it far to the south and then two days before the storm, it flipped and lined up with the NAM and Euro?

By: Steven

Steven — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 03:02:20 +0000

If you look at the 12z Euro model it appears to be the signature storm. I posted some images for comparison on my blog: http://www.sbdigitalarts.com/sewisconsinwx/the-bomb-drops-monday-not-saturday/

Guess we’ll have to wait and see to know for sure though.

By: Daniel G.

Daniel G. — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 02:40:09 +0000

I think the reason this is all a bit confusing is that the storm we just had on the 17th lines up perfectly with the storm from November 30.

November 30 to December 11 = 11 days
January 17 to January 28 (this Friday) = 11 days
Yet the signature may not come until it has been 14 days.

It would seem the pattern repeats, but not at the exact same amount of days per cycle… and it may even change within the same cycle as would be the case here.

By: jeremywisn

jeremywisn — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 00:43:12 +0000

It will be fun to watch and see which model(s) change to the final solution(whatever it ends up being). For a long time…since December 18 I believe I said the pattern was closer to 50 days. The strong jet streak recently fooled me a bit in the models for this coming Saturday last weekend into early this week. I thought it was odd that the pattern would jump ahead to about 47 days, but the strong jet streak kept my mind on this Saturday being the ‘signature’ storm.

Today, I looked back to October 22 and then the 54 hour 500mb map from the 18Z GFS…they are very close to one another. Obviously back in October the ‘signature’ storm arrived on the 26-27, now what will happen early next week?

After re-examining the pattern, I think it is possible the EURO and one other model may have a better handle on what’s ahead. When I gain confidence in the forecast for early next week I’ll add more thoughts.

After using the LRC for 5 years I should know to trust it and not question the pattern:) This is a great example of why I say to people to follow the LRC for a year before making a judgement.

Overall the February forecast should still be okay, outside of possibly the first day. The coldest weather of the season I believe will arrive in Milwaukee the first week of the month, and a milder stretch of weather toward the middle part of Feb.

Jeremy