The Most Recent Winter Outlook…

was just released by the Climate Prediction Center.  In The midsts of reports of a 17% increase in the price to heat your home across parts of the midwest this winter… finally some good news.

Based on recent weather patterns and the lack of a well defined El Nino or La Nina (in other words “La Nada”) the Federal agency is forecasting a strong possibility of above normal temperatures.  If this verifies we’ll benefit by price drops along with demand.  The official forecast can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

It’s important to remember this is a probability of temperaters AVERAGING above normal.  There will still be cold and snowy days.  This is Wisconsin afterall.

Speaking of snow, notice the bottom “Precipitation Outlook” map below the temperature map.  It show equal chances (33.3%) of above normal, near normal and below normal aounts of precipitation.  Basically, your guess is as good as ours:-) 

My money is on a mild, typically wet Nov and Dec with below normal snowfall.  I have a feeling that could change by late January with the possibility of winter running into spring.  It will certainly be fun to see how it plays out.

Lance Hill

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One Response

  1. The model runs have a pretty average amount of snow coming this year in my opinion. I can’t wait to see what happens!

    -Chris
    http://weatherscout.wordpress.com

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