Looking More Wet Than White

As is pretty typical around here, another tough winter forecast. At this point the track of the low is farther west than yesterday. This would equate to less snow and mix and more cold rain. However, I’m still very concerned about Wednesday night-Thursday morning for the possibility of a large amount of freezing rain, especially in our northern and northwestern counties. These areas may stay below freezing longer creating hazardous conditions

Here is the latest computer model for Thursday afternoon/evening. The 540 thickness line is usually a decent indicator of the rain/snow line and it is in northern Wisconsin. The bulk of the precipitation we will get will be rain.

The snow will be heavy where it stays snow. The following map is a computer model depicting snowfall forecast through Thursday afternoon. The snow on the map in our area is actually from the light snow that we will get on Tuesday. This computer model brings us little to any snow on Wednesday-Thursday.

The computer model has some crazy totals in Nebraska and South Dakota, but safe to say where this storm stays all snow it will be well over a foot. Stay tuned. Thanks for reading.

Mark Baden

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One Response

  1. The only thing I think I know about this storm right now is the occlusion. Other than that, I am struggling right now having any idea where the ULL or surface low will track. The northern stream is reeking havoc on the models right now.

    I almost see some fujiwhara effect going on as the southern vorticity interacts with the northern wave piece. Based on the upper level follies, I have little faith as to where the surface low is going to track.

    It would be a shame to have to wait on the RUC to figure this out! If I factor in “past trends”, I could see a slightly better solution for all involved…but the northern stream wasn’t as amped in October. Maybe it has something to do with the -5.67 freakishly low Arctic Oscillation?

    Tough storm!

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