Quiet, But Cold

Our cold weather pattern looks to be pretty relentless. Lows on Sunday morning in our area were as cold as -8 in Fort Atkinson. This did not even come close to the coldest temperature in the state. That honor went to Minong in northwest Wisconsin. The low was -32. That was the actual temperature, not the wind chill.

Another week of no big storms. It should be a quiet week with a couple of flurries on Monday. The highs will actually make it back to the twenties on Monday-Wednesday before another cool down at the end of the week. The only chance for measurable snow this week comes on Thursday, but even this does not look like a big deal.

The above image is the GFS model forecast for Thursday afternoon. The GFS is clearly not impressed by the Alberta Clipper for our area. I’ll watch the clipper carefully, but at this point I don’t expect a lot of snow. Stay tuned.

Mark Baden


4 Responses

  1. during the fall months NOAA has been predicting a moderate El Nino winter. seems this is not going to happen as temps have been below normal and about an average snowfall so far. i havent found any updates from NOAA as far as if the El Nino occurance has disipated, or are they sticking with there prediction? i know a 1 degree (C) can make a fairly large difference in ocean water temps as far as this occurance goes, but havent seen any updates? are we still in the El Nino??

    • Paul,

      El Nino continues…but I believe you can’t forecast solely based on one factor like El Nino. El Nino is an influence, but not the lone factor in our weather. The long term long wave trough that is dominate in the pattern this winter is just west of our viewing area and then extends into the Rockies. Those are the locations experiencing the brutal cold and a fairly snowy winter. A break from the cold should arrive by the middle of the month. So far I’m happy with my January forecast for the Milwaukee area, 2-4 days with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits the first week, a little moderation, and then a clipper storm around the 7-9th. That clipper will arrive on the 7th, and is a pretty strong one, that will usher in another round of cold before the warm-up.

      Thanks for stopping by!


  2. Don’t look now, but the 18z GFS has a 498dm 500mb low off the coast of western Canada at 156 hrs. It progs a surface low of 956mb.

    Are you kidding me? I wonder where that might go in the middle of January?

    • I saw that bomb as well. I’ll keep watching and you guys keep convincing me that the LRC is the real deal.


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