Latest On Impending Snowstorm

Good afternoon, everyone. I hope everyone is ready for a long-duration snow event. The lake-effect snow this morning that continues in our northern counties was a surprise today. Normally, we don’t get accumulating lake-effect snow with a southeast wind. Some areas picked up as much as 2″ especially in our northern counties. The lake-effect will likely continue this evening before the main event arrives around midnight tonight.

Here is the latest information on how much snow is on the way. I’m still confident with my forecast from last night. In essence that means 7″-10″ from Lake Michigan inland 20 miles. 4″-7″ well inland. The timeline should work out like this:

Midnight tonight – 6 AM Tuesday: 1″-2″

6AM Tuesday – 6PM Tuesday: 2″-4″

6PM Tuesday – 6AM Wednesday: 2″-4″

GRAND TOTALS: WITHIN 20 MILES OF LAKE: 7″-10″/ WELL INLAND: 4″-7″

One of the reasons I am still confident in my forecast is the latest model projections.

The noon run of the NAM model shows a little less moisture in our area. The 6AM run had .69″ of liquid vs. .58″ at noon today. I will keep a close eye on the 6PM run for tonight to see if it continues a downward trend.

The one part of the forecast that could give us a few isolated spots with higher totals would be if a lake-effect band stayed in the same place for an extended time. This is almost impossible to forecast, but at this point I do not see that happening.

The noon computer model run of our high resolution RPM model has also trended down a little as well. Take a look:

Stay tuned for updates on 12 news at 5, 6, and 10. Thanks for reading.

Mark

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7 Responses

  1. I admire you sticking to your guns on your forecast. It would be easy to just follow the NWS forecast of 10-14 inches like everyone else is doing and if it doesn’t turn out that way just shrug it off and say “well no one got it right”. I remember a snow event last year where you guys had a notably different forecast from everyone else and it turned out the way you said it would. So, right or wrong this time, thanks for your efforts.

  2. Thanks, Daniel. We pride ourselves on making our own forecasts. It is easy to be swayed by other forecasts, but I’m calling it like I see it. To be even more cliche, “you win some, you lose some.” We’ll see how this one goes, but I feel confident right now. Thanks for reading the blog and watching WISN-12.

    Mark

  3. This snow (storm) was forecast almost month ago.

    Any more forecasts for more ‘big one’s’ such as this for the remainder of Feb and March. We all know that Ol’ Man Winter never goes out without a bang……

    Just wondering if this was the ‘bang’?

    • Joe,

      This is more of Jeremy’s realm, but the LRC certainly hit this coming storm. I think we will still have more “bangs” to come. I’ll let Jeremy blog more on that in the coming days. Thanks for responding.

      Mark

  4. Good work!

  5. Ahhhh………..I was kind of liking that other computer run, the one putting Sheboygan in the heaviest of the snow! But oh well. I’ve had my share of dissapointing snow events, where tons of snow is expected and we see very little. Such as that big December storm that dumped 18″ in Dane County, we saw about 3 and Wind Point a trace.

    • Hang in there, Robert. 8″-10″ is nothing to sneeze at. Enjoy the snow.

      Mark

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