Good afternoon, everyone. I hope everyone is ready for a long-duration snow event. The lake-effect snow this morning that continues in our northern counties was a surprise today. Normally, we don’t get accumulating lake-effect snow with a southeast wind. Some areas picked up as much as 2″ especially in our northern counties. The lake-effect will likely continue this evening before the main event arrives around midnight tonight.
Here is the latest information on how much snow is on the way. I’m still confident with my forecast from last night. In essence that means 7″-10″ from Lake Michigan inland 20 miles. 4″-7″ well inland. The timeline should work out like this:
Midnight tonight – 6 AM Tuesday: 1″-2″
6AM Tuesday – 6PM Tuesday: 2″-4″
6PM Tuesday – 6AM Wednesday: 2″-4″
GRAND TOTALS: WITHIN 20 MILES OF LAKE: 7″-10″/ WELL INLAND: 4″-7″
One of the reasons I am still confident in my forecast is the latest model projections.
The noon run of the NAM model shows a little less moisture in our area. The 6AM run had .69″ of liquid vs. .58″ at noon today. I will keep a close eye on the 6PM run for tonight to see if it continues a downward trend.
The one part of the forecast that could give us a few isolated spots with higher totals would be if a lake-effect band stayed in the same place for an extended time. This is almost impossible to forecast, but at this point I do not see that happening.
The noon computer model run of our high resolution RPM model has also trended down a little as well. Take a look:
Stay tuned for updates on 12 news at 5, 6, and 10. Thanks for reading.