Latest Trends & Snowfall Forecast

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10pm and Sunday morning from 5-6am & 7-9am for the latest snow forecast!***

Thank you for taking a few minutes to read the latest Weather Watch 12 blog.  In the past 12 hours there has been a trend toward less snow for Southeast Wisconsin.  This morning I showed a snow forecast from our in-house model the RPM…this same model has continued to drop the snow totals for our area.

Let’s start with a quick discussion of the forecast I showed during our newscasts.  The map included a narrow band of 4″-7″ of snow from Milwaukee to Racine and Kenosha and into northeast Illinois.  These locations could see a little bit of lake enhancement.  A little farther inland the band changed to 3″-5″ and included areas like Waukesha, Brookfield, and West Bend.  Then farther west a band of 1″-3″.  This storm to is not looking all that impressive compared to some of the other ‘big’ storms we’ve had this winter season.  Still, a wet snow of several inches or more can cause a lot of problems.

In reading a comment on Facebook and also talking to some co-workers, it seems like our forecast is the lowest in town right now.  Now let’s look at how I came up with my numbers…

The first computer model to consider is the RPM which is our in-house model.  This has really cut down the snow totals and overall seems very realistic based on the trends of other models.  This forecast would give Milwaukee about 4″ of snow…and maybe 4″-6″ for Racine and Kenosha.  Otherwise most of the metro would see 2″-4″ of snow. 

That is one extreme…now let’s check out the other end.  A model that would produce more snow.  Below is the total precipitation forecast from the 18Z GFS.  This puts a total LIQUID amount of 0.50″ to 0.75″ over Milwaukee…this would translate into about 5″-9″ of snow in the dark blue shade.

The 00Z NAM now has trended back to a wetter solution.  This new solution would put about 4″-8″ of snow in the heavy snow band closer to the lake shore. 

Sometimes one model wins, and other times it a combination of 2 or more.  This snow may end up being that combination, but the trend will be closely watched before the storm nears Sunday Night.

Make sure to wach our newscasts for the very latest snowfall forecast as the numbers are adjusted up or down, and please add your thoughts and questions to the comments section of this interactive blog!

Jeremy Nelson

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9 Responses

  1. Great post! I really love how you guys pride yourself on giving honest, original forecasts unlike other folks who just seem to take their info from the NWS….. Keep it up 😛

    • Dan…good news for snow lovers…the NAM was a little more robust with the snow! I will have a slightly updated snow graphic at 10.

      Jeremy

      • Woohooo!!! Glad to hear it 🙂

      • I barely tweaked the forecast…the GFS was not very impressive. Watch at 10.

        Jeremy

  2. Jeremy,

    As you mentioned to here on the blog and on the 10:00 forecast, you guys are the low guys in town compared to the other three channels in Milwaukee that have revealed their totals.. Also, WGN channel 9 from Chicago says that 10-12 inches would be near the WI-IL border, but with your forecast only 4-7 near the lake and the state line. I’m just wondering why yours seems to be the lowest compared to everyone else in the area. This seems like an interesting
    one to keep an eye on.

    Thanks,
    Bryan

    P.S. I’m glad that you guys made note of the fact that your forecast is lowest, but you guys seem confident. I like that you guys are honest. It’s always good to have that trait.

  3. Jeremy – the GFS and NAM both had some initialization errors today and the GFS had some missing data at 12z. FYI. I have noted the GFS suffering from some convective feedback.

  4. Winter Weather Advisory is up. Looks like your lowest in town storm totals are going to be right. Good work.

  5. Haha, so you guys were right all along apparently! Nice work

    • Dan, you were never doubting us were you:)
      Jeremy

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