Heavy Rain For Thursday?

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm as we track rain on the Doppler 12 Radar Network!***

UPDATE AT 9:00 PM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EVERYONE UNTIL 9:00 AM THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO IN MAY AREAS. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AS RAIN MOVES IN BY THE AFTERNOON.

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog. A very large and slow moving storm system began to impact Southeast Wisconsin on Tuesday with rain showers. If you love Spring weather, this storm system may bring the first thunderstorms of 2010 to the area on Thursday! So don’t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder! The best way to track the rain and thunderstorms is to use our interactive radar.

www.wisn.com/irad

In today’s blog entry I will go over the potential for not only thunderstorms on Thursday, but also the chances of heavy rain in many areas.

Let’s start by looking at a couple of rainfall totals around the Milwaukee area thru Wednesday morning. Remember, if you have a rain total to share please post it in the comments section of the blog. We will do our best to share your totals on WISN 12 News!

  • Milwaukee Mitchell 0.29″
  • Kenosha 0.19″

Rain showers will remain in the forecast into this weekend as the slow moving storm crawls along. As one surface low surges north on Thursday afternoon, the potential does exist for a period of heavier rain. As mentioned above, a few thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across Southeast and East-Central Wisconsin. Remember, anytime thunderstorms occur there is the potential for heavy rain if the storms linger over any one area for 30 minutes or more.

Below is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center(SPC) for Thursday. While we are not in a severe weather risk area…Milwaukee is in the area for possible thunderstorms. I think when the SPC updates this forecast later today it will extend the thunderstorm area north and include all areas up to around Green Bay.

More rain is on the way for Thursday, but the question is how much. The latest data has just rolled in to our forecast center. The two models we use most often – the NAM(North American Model) and the GFS(Global Forecast System) do have some differences in regards to the amount of rain. Let’s check out both forecasts quickly.

The wetter of the two solutions is the GFS. If this verifies we could see some smaller streams and rivers reach their banks or overflow. Again, if and only if this forecast is correct. This is from the 12Z GFS and is a rainfall forecast from Thursday morning thru Friday morning. The light blue shade over Milwaukee represents 1.00″ to 1.25″ of rain. The dark green shade over Southwest Wisconsin represents 0.25″ to 0.50″.

The NAM forecast does not have as much rain for Milwaukee…but it does have a bullseye of 2″ of rain near Green Bay. We need to watch this closely, because if the potentially 2″ area would be over Milwaukee…then flooding may be a concern. Here is the NAM forecast again from Thursday morning to Friday morning for total rainfall. This map below has Milwaukee in a band of 0.50″ to 0.75″ of rain.

We will continue to track the latest on radar and in the computer models. So check back often for updates and make sure to watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest. Also, on your computer a great way to track the rainfall forecast is to use Futurecast. This can be found on the right hand side of the interactive radar page. Just follow the link below.

www.wisn.com/irad

If you have questions or thoughts on the weather please post them to the comments section of the blog. Have a great day and stay dry!

Jeremy Nelson

Advertisements

4 Responses

  1. Last week of the month looks fun..and expected.

    • Good thing I talked about late March as another active period of weather! I said there may be two lion’s lurking in March:)

      Jeremy

      • Its cheating. Long range forecasting shouldn’t be this easy. Looking at the other indicators reflecting the LRC, its like looking at an EKG. Steady and pretty darn reliable.

        Until summer when the plug gets pulled.

        Keep an eye on the AO again. April may have a surprise freeze. Maybe not too surprising for Wisconsin, but others to the south may be caught off guard. By up your oranges now!

        😉

      • We see freezes into May…nothing unusual around here. I remember golfing in late May one time in Minnesota and there were snow showers.

        Jeremy

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: