Irish Eyes Are Smiling…Tracking Weekend Rain & Snow

***Watch WISN 12 News for Milwaukee’s most accurate St. Patrick’s Day forecast!***

A nice stretch of mild days arrived once again just in time for St. Patrick’s Day!  Just one year ago the warmest March 17 ever occurred in Milwaukee with a high of 75 degrees!  Now we are not expecting anything like that this year, but I do think inland around will be around 60, with Milwaukee warming to around 54-7 degrees on St. Patrick’s Day.

I don’t think we’ll have to deal with too much of a lake breeze on Wednesday…so everyone should enjoy a sunny and very mild day!  Below is the NAM temperature forecast at 1pm.  Notice that all of Southeast Wisconsin is at 55 degrees or warmer! 

The warmest day this week should be on Thursday as highs will surge to around 60 in Milwaukee…and maybe the low to mid 60s inland!  It will feel like late April!

As you know all good things must come to an end…especially when it comes to the weather.  It is still March afterall and with the State Boys Basketball Tournament in full gear this weekend it is fitting that rain and snow is in the forecast.  Right now it looks like rain on Saturday…and a changeover to snow on Sunday.  Some snow accumulation is possible on Sunday.  Lots of variables in play, and still too early to put totals on the snow.  But I would count on some snow on Sunday.

Now let’s do a quick comparison.  Below is the 500mb forecast map from the 12Z GFS.  This forecast map is for the 500mb level which is the middle of the atmosphere and is for late Saturday.  Notice the very large upper level low over Missouri and Kansas.  If this tracks just east of Milwaukee on Sunday…the chances of snow would increase.

Now if you follow the blog you have heard me discuss the LRC…or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle.  This theory says that the weather pattern sets up each Fall…and then begins to cycle.  This is a very quick definition, but please look back to previous blogs for in-depth analysis and detail.

I bring this theory up because the storm that is on the way for this weekend has been here before!  Looking back to November when the jet stream was roughly the strength that it is now in March…the upper level low was positioned in almost exactly the same place.

The archived 500mb map below is from November 24.  Check it out and then compare this to the map above for this weekend.  Very close!

If you have any questions about the LRC, St. Patrick’s Day, or the weekend storm please leave your questions and thoughts in the comments section of the blog.

Have a great day and please join us on Facebook at WeatherWatch 12

Jeremy Nelson

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6 Responses

  1. Hey Jeremy, How much snow are you thinkin?? Should I take the blower off of the tractor, or wait a few days? 🙂

    • March tends to be the month of surprises…right now it looks like rain and then some snow. Just how much ‘some’ is will be defined in the coming days. Make sure to keep reading and sharing the blog with others!

      Jeremy

  2. Hi Jeremy, We are flying into Milwaukee Friday evening and flying out Tuesday afternoon. Will the “storm” cause any travel difficulties? Any must see attractions in Milwaukee?

    For your readers: We used to live in Kansas City and the LRC works! It just takes time to recognize the pattern and a little faith in nature.

    M. Haden
    Lincoln, NE

    • I think you will be fine. If there are any flight concerns it would be either Saturday or Sunday. But even those days probably just parts of each day. Take the Miller Tour. Keep in mind the NCAA tourney is in town this weekend and it will be crazy! Thanks for stopping by the blog and if you watch tv check out channel 12(ABC)!

      Jeremy

  3. Latest 600Z GWS model has the storm out of the area by Sunday afternoon, NWS says 1-2 inches Sat and 1-2 inches Sat night, of course this could change, but this storm looks to be a quick mover.

    • Bryan,

      Way too early to put a snow total on this storm. Remember the last snow we had for the entire area? Many ‘other’ places had 10″ of snow. We stayed in the 3-6″ range. Most areas ended up with 2-3″. There’s no need for snow totals this far out in my opinion. We’ll likely start putting numbers on the snow if it looks like it will accumulate on Thursday or Friday morning. The weekend is still at least 60 hours away…and any snow 76+ hours.

      Jeremy

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