Spring Fever…Weekend Storm

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the potential for rain & snow this weekend!***

100% sunshine and highs around 60 were the rule for St. Patrick’s Day 2010!  I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy the sun and very mild temperatures…our warmest of 2010 in Milwaukee with a high of 59 degrees.

Since I’m filling in for Mark and tracking the weekend rain and snow I thought I’d share my all-time favorite St. Patrick’s Day picture with all the bloggers.  Last year when I was working in Kansas City, Conan O’Brien stopped by our station on March 17 when he was promoting his move to the Tonight Show.  Outside of Conan and myself…my daughter Ella is in the picture.  She thought Conan’s hair was pretty funny. 

Now back to the weather.  We can expect one more day of really warm temperatures.  I think ALL areas on Thursday will warm into the 60-65 degree range.  Even lakeshore locations should hit 60 since the winds will be gusty out of the west.

Friday will be a ‘transitional’ day with highs in the low 50s and increasing clouds.  A few rain showers are possible Friday evening, with a mix of rain and snow possible Friday Night.  Saturday and Sunday are tricky forecast days to say the least.  Here is a few reasons why…keep in mind we are still days away from the weekend.

1) The exact track of the storm and how strong it will be are not known.  Some models are faster(less snow or no snow) and others are slower(potential for more snow).

2) The temperature profile of the atmosphere will flucuate between now and Saturday.  This means the rain/snow line will move around.

3) The amount of moisture available for this storm is uncertain.

4) If it does snow…how much sticks and accumulates?

These are the variables in play.  Here is a snapshot of what one model is saying.  This is the from the 12Z GFS and is a 24 hour precipitaton forecast from Saturday at 7 a.m. to Sunday at 7 a.m.  I think with the faster forecast of this storm that rain could transition to snow or a wintry mix early Saturday as stated above…and if we see all snow it would likely be sometime Saturday morning or early afternoon.  If this scenario plays out the key will be how much precipitation falls as snow?

Again…a 24 hour precipitation forecast.  The second shade of green over Milwaukee is 0.10″ to 0.25″ of precipitation.  Maybe half of this is snow?

As we get closer our in-house high resolution computer model will begin to zero in on this storm.  By Thursday morning that model will have a forecast out thru the entire weekend.  At that point we will begin to get more specific with who could see what and how much rain or snow.

Make sure to watch WISN 12 News for some special graphics detailing the weekend storm.  If you have questions or thoughts please leave them in the comments section of the blog!  Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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4 Responses

  1. Jeremy, great post. Love the picture, that’s so awesome! Your daughter seems to have Conan’s hair color!

    And thanks for not over-hyping this storm 🙂

    • Dan,

      Conan was a riot that day! I did a few minutes of stand up at our station.

      Jeremy

  2. This storm keeps getting weaker for our area and the track keeps getting pushed further south. A few days ago some of the models had most of the heaviest snow to the north of here and now it seems to focused the most to the south and east.

    It seems reminiscent of that late Feb. storm where the models (about 4-5 days in advance) were suggesting around an inch of precip. which would have been nearly a foot of snow and as each subsequent run came in, the amounts lessened and the track kept getting pushed more south. In the end, Jeremy and Mark had those snow totals figured out best and I’ll be listening to whatever they say about this storm as well.

    • Daniel,

      The 18Z GFS has a wetter storm for use…and yes accumulating snow. Our in-house model is pretty fast though…meaning much less snow. We need to give this another day before diving into snow totals. Let’s just enjoy the sunshine and 60s on Thursday!

      Jeremy

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