Latest Storm Track & Snow Chances

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest on the rain and snow chances!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! Weather conditions have been fantastic this week with lots of sunshine and highs in the 50s and 60s. Spring officially begins this Saturday…and just in time for Spring we may get a wintry reminder!

A lot of discussion has taken place on our blog and other media outlets in regards to the chances of snow this weekend. When I arrived at work on Wednesday I was greeted by someone who said, “What is this I hear about 7″ of snow this weekend?”. My immediate response was…what? Simply because I know when there are question marks regarding a storm Weather Watch 12 never puts snow totals out 4 days in advance. Lots can and will change.

Well I finally found out what that person was referring to…an article in Journal-Sentinel. If you would like to read the article here you go.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/87929187.html

Here is a small part that mentions the snow totals…

The precipitation is expected to begin with a mix of rain and snow Saturday morning that will change to all snow by Saturday night, with accumulations of up to five inches possible.

Another two inches of snow could fall Sunday before clear skies and more seasonable temperatures settle in over the area next week, according to the weather service.

All Meteorologists make mistakes, but issuing snow totals 4 days in advance is risky. Yesterday in the Weather Watch 12 blog, and when I was filling in for Mark I discussed the chances for rain, a mix, and then snow from late Friday into Saturday. With a lot of questions remaining I went over the scenarios that could play out and which one was most likely to occur. With another day to look over the data we are getting a much better idea of the timing and type of precipitation to expect.

On Friday we should see another mild day with highs in the 50s in most spots. Skies will become cloudy during the afternoon, and by evening a few rain showers will be possible. As cold air rushes in Friday Night a change to a wintry mix or even snow will likely occur.

Below is a precipitation type forecast from the 12Z NAM…just one computer model we use. This is for 1 a.m. Saturday morning. The green represents rain, and the blue snow.

A period of wet snow is possible early Saturday as one piece of the storm’s engergy slides by. The snow may be a quick burst and enough to stick in a few spots. Our in-house computer model gives far Southeast Wisconsin a quick shot of wet snow early Saturday with trace amounts up to maybe a slushy 1″. Notice that more snow is expected around Chicago.

Any slight shift to the north and there could be several inches of snow across Southeast Wisconsin…and a slight shift to the south and even less snow. For the most up-to-date forecast tune into WISN 12 News. We would love to hear how much snow you think will fall on Saturday…just answer the poll question.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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6 Responses

  1. When I read that article, all I could think was, “oh wow…. they’ve stooped to a new level!” It’s ridiculous

    Thanks for staying so real on this!

    • I just don’t see a need for putting snow totals out 4 days in advance. Maybe it turns out to be correct…but more times than not the forecast will change in one direction or the other.

      Jeremy

  2. It’s funny how some forecasters love to tell you how they were right on with snow totals, start times and duration, but it only happens a FEW times a YEAR!!

    • Certainly this storm for the weekend isn’t here yet and will shift around over the next 36 hours. I still think we see wet snow and possibly enough for slushy accumulation. But a slight shift and it may be almost nothing. Spring snows are always fun to forecast:)

      Jeremy

  3. Hey Jeremy, thanks for the update. Just saw Mark’s updated forecast he says 1.8 inches for Milwaukee, NWS has us at 1 so yes I would say that 7 inch total was jumping the gun a bit.

  4. I was listening to Wisconsin Public Radio Wed. morning after watching the morning news on WISN and hearing your weather report for the weekend storm. WPR was forecasting 3-4 inches with possible 7-8 inches of snow for southeast WI this weekend. I’m hoping your forecast is the accurate one.

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