***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest radar trends!***
Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog. In today’s entry we will focus on the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across Southeast Wisconsin over the next 24 hours.
Hopefully you enjoyed the beautiful weather conditions on Monday…sunshine and highs around 70! The weather was just perfect for the Brewers home opener. Weather conditions will head downhill quickly this evening as a warm front begins to push north. This front seperates cooler and drier air to the north, and warm moist air to the south.
As the warm, moist air is pushed over the front, thunderstorms will begin developing Monday evening and continue right into Tuesday morning. Here is the surface set-up at 1 a.m. Tuesday morning. The warm front is still to our south, but notice the shaded/hatched area over southern Wisconsin. This represents thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Along with the potential for 1″-2″ of rain in spots, some of thunderstorms may contain hail. This is the primary severe weather threat with the thunderstorms from Monday evening into early Tuesday. Here is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Most of our viewing area is included in the slight risk area.
The warm front will attempt to push into southern Wisconsin on Tuesday. It will have a tough time since there will be a lot of clouds, some left over showers, and rain cooled air sitting across the area. The high temperature forecast is extremely difficult to predict for Tuesday. Some areas, especially around Sheboygan or Port Washington may only be in the 40s on Tuesday! While areas near the Illinois border such as Beloit or Lake Geneva may warm to around 70.
For Milwaukee, highs will likely be in the 50s to 60s assuming the front stay to the south or makes it right to the doorstep of the city. If it surges north, of course temps here would be in the 70s too. But with heavy rain likely overnight and into Tuesday, the front will likely stay to our south.
Below is the 12Z NAM temperature forecast for Tuesday afternoon. Looked at the very tightly packed temperature gradient…and it appears Milwaukee is on the wrong side of the front.
The good news is that if the warm front remains south of the area on Tuesday…the severe weather threat will also stay out of our area. We will continue to track this in the blog and also on WISN 12 News!
Please pass along your rain totals and we will share them on our newscasts. Also, your storm related weather photos are welcome too!