Tale of Three Models and Severe Chances

Happy Wednesday. Nice to have the sunshine. Lake Michigan still refrigerating areas near the shore, but warmer weather is on the way. Temperatures should be near 70 on Thursday except right near the lake, and 75 for everyone on Friday. The next storm system rolls in late on Friday. The three main computer models we use for short-range forecasting are actually in fairly close agreement. The biggest questions that remain in the forecast is when the storms arrive and if they will be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has us in slight risk for Friday.

I think the slight risk is warranted, however, if the storms hold off until after midnight on Friday night, the likelihood of severe weather would be diminished.

I want to show you the three models we use, each from the 7 AM model run of what to expect around midnight Friday night. All three of the models hold the rain until Friday night. I’ll start with the GFS:

The GFS brings us a general rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two, but clearly keeps the severe weather and heaviest rain to our south. Next is the NAM:

The NAM has a line of storms in western Wisconsin, but as the time progresses these storms weaken as they move into southeastern Wisconsin. Finally, our own RPM model:

This also has a few storms in southwestern Wisconsin and also keeps the strongest storms to our south. I like to give you an idea of what we look at here at WISN so you can see some of our thoughts when making a forecast.

At this point, I think our severe chances are pretty low because I think the storm timing will be between midnight and 6AM on Friday night/Saturday morning. All three models clear us out for Saturday so should be a decent start to the weekend. Thanks for reading.

Mark

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