More High Clouds…Small Rain Chance Ahead

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  I hope you are enjoying the weekend so far.  The good news is dry weather should stick around right through Sunday!

I was hoping for more sunshine across the region on Saturday, but I’m not shocked that a good deal of high cloudiness streamed in.  In this blog we’ll discuss why the clouds rushed in so quickly, and what our prospects are for sun on Sunday.  Finally, we’ll look over the next rain chance which moves our way in less than 48 hours.

Let’s start discussing the clouds and where they came from.  While Wisconsin is enjoying a dry weekend, parts of the Midwest are completely cloudy with rain showers.  The area of rain as of Saturday afternoon was located from Indianapolis west to Kansas City.  The radar image below is from shortly after 2 p.m.

While southeast Wisconsin is in no danger of rain this weekend, the area of clouds to the south has been advecting into our region.  Here is why.  The upper level winds are out of a southwest direction.  This is pushing moisture in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere into our area.  This has translated to a lot of alto stratus and cirrostratus clouds.

Below is the wind direction and speed on Saturday afternoon of the upper level winds.  Notice, the winds were blowing the clouds from the rain area to the south right into southeast Wisconsin.

The question is will this trend continue.  Right now I say yes.  More clouds will stream in on Sunday…mainly mid and high clouds off the rain area to the south.  Below is a forecast product that measures moisture and type in the atmosphere.  This can then be translated into a cloud cover forecast.  Our area is shaded in the ice and snow.  High clouds are made up of ice and snow since they reside in the upper levels of the atmosphere where temperatures are the coldest.  As I mentioned above, this will probably translate into more alto stratus and cirrostratus clouds on Sunday. 

Just click on the images to enlarge.  And of course, ask as many questions as you would like in the comments section of the blog.  I will be more than happy to explain what we are discussing.

So dry on Sunday with filtered sunshine at times.  Temperatures coolest near the lake, likely in the upper 50s for highs.  That will be mainly due to the northeast winds off the chilly water.  Inland areas should make the low to mid 60s.  By Sunday night the moisture to the south flows north.

A few spotty rain showers are possible on Monday.  But the trend has been for this storm to track farther south.  Overall, rain chances for Monday stand at about 30% in Milwaukee, slightly higher near the WI/IL border.  Rain amounts will vary from nothing to possibly around a 0.25″ well to the south.  Here is our in-house computer model forecast for Monday.  Again, for the most updated forecast make sure to watch WISN 12 News!

That is a lot of rain over the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley!  We will watch this closely, because a slight shift to the north and Monday could turn into a rainy day, while another 50-70 mile shift south and our viewing area stays dry!

Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on WISN 12 News!

Jeremy Nelson

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8 Responses

  1. Once again you guys are dead wrong. Take a look at what you said for Saturday, and then look at how it turned out. Not even close. What is so difficult in predicting the weather? You should spend a little more time on what the immediate forecast is rather than spending time on a 5-day forecast, because those are never correct. Try a little bit harder please, and when you get it wrong, at least admit it “on air”. Thanks

    • Tom,

      Thanks for stopping by. If you watched our newscast from 6-7 p.m. today I clearly stated I anticipated more sun today, and told viewers to go to the blog to find out why. Outside of cloud cover the forecast for today was just fine. I promise you, any big or small miss in a forecast drives me to do better. Thanks for adding your thoughts.

      Jeremy

  2. You get on TV, and do it yourself, without any kind of educational background in meteorology, then, Mr. Leonard. Weather isn’t an exact science, so get off their back. Sure, anybody could point to a map and say, dudes, look at this H, it means the weather will be better. Or, dudes, this big red L, not good.

    Milwaukee weather seems a lot like Kansas City weather…. it changes every two seconds, so it makes it hard to forecast.

    If it seems like I’m ranting, I am, cuz I get tired of a bunch of uneducated people screeching at the weather folk, WTF YOU GOT IT WRONG! That’s what the people on our blog are doing to Gary, and George, today, and it’s tiresome. Weather people can’t snap their fingers and have it be LOL SUNSHINE, because…. Well, they just can’t. 😦

    I’m sure Mark would apologize if he got it wrong, Jeremy too, but I KNOW for a fact that I saw Gary Lezak apologize the other night when the forecast was off… and he admitted it was his fault. He apologized a couple times…. So, you can’t get anymore sorry than that.

    Seriously, aren’t there more important things to worry about?? You’re still alive, aren’t you?? The clouds didn’t make your car blow up, did it??

    Sheeesh.

    Ok, back to my regularly scheduled life. -Nicole

    • Nicole,

      Thanks for your thoughts. We had a week of clouds and rain in Milwaukee, so many were looking forward to sun today. There was some, but at least it was dry and around 60 in most areas. Certainly a good weekend by most people’s standards. Take care and thanks for reading.

      Jeremy

  3. It wasn’t just Jeremy who said it would be sunny and near 70 inland today, it was all 4 weather stations and the national weather service’s forecast as well. I admit I wasn’t pleased to be shivering a little in Waterford today since 60 and clouds is noticeably cooler than 70 and sun, but given that nobody saw it coming, I chalk it up to getting a raw deal by the weather and not by the forecasters.

    One question I have for Jeremy is if the flow is coming in from the southwest, how did the lake breeze form and actually push a good 30 miles inland.

    • Daniel,

      The surface and upper levels of the atmosphere can be vastly different on the same day, and often are. Today the flow aloft(4-7 miles above the surface) had winds out fo the southwest. At the surface, the wind was out of the east today. Since we live at the surface, areas near the lake had the cooling effect from Lake Michigan. Adding to that was the lack of sunshine. This combination led to a high of 57 in Milwaukee. Inland areas still made it into the 60s. Hopefully this helps.

      Jeremy

  4. Hi Jeremy,

    I’ve been watching Gary since he was on the “other” station here in KC, and reading both your and the KSHB blogs daily since they began.

    I’d like to say that I really appreciate all of the hard work and extreme dedication that you, Gary and Jeff (and the folks at WISN) put into your forecasts and blogs.

    I’ve learned a tremendous amount about weather, the LRC and how things all play out. For better or worse!

    Kudos to you! We miss both you and the sunshine here in Harry’s Town! Keep providing your insight, thoughts, knowledge. There are many of us who appreciate it, but don’t log on and say so (this is only my 2nd post ever!). Nobody is perfect : )

    • Patti,

      Thank you for supporting our blog! We love talking about the weather and it is people like you that make blogging a lot of fun. Not only do we help viewers understand the weather, but with the interactive format you become a part of our show by sharing rain/snow totals or providing storm reports. Thanks for venturing north to be a part of our blog!

      Jeremy

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