Wisconsin Severe Weather Outbreak?

***Watch WISN 12 News all day for the latest on the potential for severe weather!***

The weekend is almost here!  But before we get there we may have to deal with a round of severe weather across Wisconsin.

Lots of questions remain as to the exact timing and if severe weather develops, what type?

Throughout today it is important to stay updated by watching WISN 12.  If you have outdoor plans today in SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, I think any thunderstorms and potential severe weather will hold off until after 4 p.m., and likely not until the evening hours.  You can always track the storms anywhere with our interactive radar.

www.wisn.com/irad

The SPC has all of southeast Wisconsin in a slight risk of severe weather, with a moderate, or elevated risk to our southwest.  Just click on the map below is enlarge.

The SPC updates the map several times a day, so look back here later and I will post the updated outlook.

The biggest threat with any storms that turn severe will be hail and damaging winds.  However, there is also a small chance of tornadoes today somewhere in Wisconsin.  Remember, the odds of a tornado hitting exactly where you live is extremely small.  Overall, the odds of getting hit by lightning are much higher than getting hit by a tornado…just to put things in perspective.

Below is the SPC outlook for tornadoes today.  This puts our viewing area in the 5% tornado probability.  This means there is a 5% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point.

Now the timing is tricky, since many factors play into the formation of thunderstorms.  But the RUC(Rapid Update Cycle) model from this morning does not bring a line of thunderstorms in our area until after 10 p.m.

Below is the surface forecast for 11 p.m. this evening.  Notice the line of potential thunderstorms is still west of Milwaukee.  Just click on the image to enlarge.

In my opinion, the later the storms arrive, the more the threat would be hail and strong winds, versus tornadoes.

We will continue to watch the set up closely.  In the meantime, enjoy a hot and humid day with highs around 90!

Jeremy Nelson

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