Active Weather Pattern Continues This Week

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on severe weather chances!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  Weather conditions this weekend were nearly perfect with dry weather in almost all areas both Saturday and Sunday.  That was the good news, the bad news, more rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast.  In this blog we will discuss the active weather ahead for this week including severe weather chances

Since there are many new eyes on the blog each day, let’s review the Summer forecast that was posted exclusively here in the blog back on May 28, what the forecast was based on, and how I knew months ago that this week would bring active weather to southeast Wisconsin.

Seven months ago I began providing long range forecasts based on a weather pattern theory that I learned about while working in Kansas City.  The theory is called the ‘LRC’, or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle.

Here is what the theory states:

  • A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
  • The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
  • Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
  • The LRC is a winter/spring/early summer-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

This years cycle is roughly 60-62 days, the weather patterns and conditions that happened in the Fall, Winter, and Spring are continuing to repeat even now that we are into Summer!

Before we discuss this week’s weather, here is the Summer forecast that was posted in the blog on May 28.

Temperatures

Forecast: Above Average

Discussion: The current pattern has only produced 1 month(October) with below average temperatures from October-May.  I expect the trend of above average temperatures to continue into summer.  The warmest temperatures of the summer may occur around July 18-25.  This pairs with other warm-ups in previous parts of the cycle, including the 86 & 88 degree temperatures from May 23-24. 

As a side note, Milwaukee averages 10 days each summer with a high of 90 or warmer.  I think the warmest high temperature this summer in Milwaukee will be 95 degrees.

Rainfall

Forecast: Around Average (11.17″)

Discussion: Predicting summer rainfall is always tricky.  Thunderstorms are spotty by nature, and can produce a wide range of rainfall totals.  But based on the pattern over the last 8 months, I think we will hang close to average this summer in regards to rainfall.

June looks like the wettest month of the summer.  Active periods for weather to watch for come around June 7-9 and then a wetter period the last week to 10 days of the month.  This is when the ‘signature’ storm should occur.  Severe weather season should heat up in June, and likely will be the most active of the summer.  Several disturbances will pass by in the more active parts of the pattern.

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Those were my thoughts on Summer 2010 as a whole.  I am sticking by the forecast which in my opinion has worked out well so far.  Rainfall and temperatures are both on pace to end above average this month in Milwaukee.

Now the active weather I discussed for the last 7-10 days of the month will kick in on Monday.  Showers and thunderstorms will rumble back into the area.  The firing line for storms during the early part of this week will be along a stationary front.  Below is a forecast surface map for Monday.

To the south of the front highs will be in the 90s with dew points in the 70s…yuck!  To the north of the temperatures will likely be in the 70s for low 80s.  The front will waver across the Midwest from Monday-Wednesday.  As the front moves into southern Wisconsin so will the chances of severe weather.

As of this writing the Storm Prediction Center(SPC) has southeast Wisconsin in a slight risk of severe weather on Monday.  A strong or severe storm can’t be ruled out for Monday, but the best chance of severe weather in our area is on Tuesday and Wednesday.  At that time the stationary front will drift north, and possibly bring the 3 ingredients(moisture, lift, and instability) needed for severe weather together.

Below is the Day 3 outlook from the SPC.  This has almost all of Wisconsin in a slight risk for severe weather.

The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain.  But at some point this week the conditions may also lead to isolated tornadoes.  Hard to tell this far since the exact frontal position will be the key, but it is something we need to watch closely for Tuesday/Wednesday.

Updated information flows into our weather center every few hours, so make sure to stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts on WISN 12 News, on Facebook at WeatherWatch 12, on Twitter at WISN12News, and right here in the blog.  If you have questions on the weather pattern or want to add your thoughts please post them to the comments section of the blog!

Have a great first day of Summer on Monday!

Jeremy Nelson

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