More Storms & Severe Chances, Tricky Timing

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for the latest on severe weather chances!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog.  The forecast for the next few days is easy, but yet very difficult.  It is not often that I can say this but here is what I mean.  The easy part: there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms thru Wednesday, some possibly severe.  Now the tough part: when will storms develop, where exactly will they move, and what is the timing?

The tricky part of the forecast has many questions associated with it.  Let’s try to break down the forecast and provide some answers.

The big issue with the forecast is where/when will a now stationary front lift north as a warm front and near southeast Wisconsin.  I think that will occur on Tuesday.  But as the front lifts north, showers and thunderstorms could flare up near the boundry.  Below is the forecast surface map for Tuesday at 1 a.m. this shows the front lifting north as a warm front(in red).  The green outlined areas are where a chance of thunderstorms exists. 

Right now there is a chance of early morning showers/t-storms on Tuesday.  So Monday Night into early Tuesday is one possible round.

As the front lifts north of our area, it will turn VERY WARM and HUMID on Tuesday.  If we see several hours of sunshine, temperatures should make it to the mid to upper 80s in Milwaukee.  If the sun does stay out for part of the afternoon, I think we need to watch for another round of thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon or evening hours.

This is when some of the storm could be strong to severe.  As we have been discussing for the last couple of days, there is a slight risk of severe weather from Monday Night thru Wednesday.  Here is how the slight risk for our area has been broken down by the Storm Prediction Center for TUESDAY.  Just click on the map to enlarge.

In our area there is a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point.  A higher risk lies to our south over Illinois.  We need to watch this closely, because this area may be over southern Wisconsin if conditions become more favorable for severe weather on Tuesday.  As a note, severe weather forecasting is much more accurate the day of the possible storms.  Many variables like cloud cover, wind direction, and temperature are unknowns until the day actually arrives.

The biggest threat with any storm that may turn severe would be damaging winds.  Also we need to watch for hail and heavy rain.  And we can never rule out a brief tornado, but the setup as of this writing favors strong winds and heavy rain.

With a round of storms possible later Tuesday and Tuesday evening, and then another possible round Wednesday, the rainfall totals could add up quickly.

Below is our in-house rainfall forecast from Monday Night thru Wednesday.  Notice that some parts of southeast Wisconsin could see 2″-3″ of rain!  Again, this would only occur if 2-3 thunderstorm complexes move through the area in that time span.  Just click on the map to enlarge.

 

With the timing being very difficult for the storms, a great way to track them from the comfort of your home or office, is to use our interactive radar.  You can zoom and move the radar wherever you would like.

www.wisn.com/irad

If and when thundestorms develop, we would love to see your weather pictures.  Just post them to the U-Local section of WISN.com  When we get pictures we love to show them on WISN 12 News.  That’s it for now, look for the most updated forecast on WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. and if severe weather strikes, we will immediately break into programming to give you the information.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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2 Responses

  1. We live at 1890 Elm Tree Road in Elm Grove and just received 1.58 inches of rain in our rain gauge as of 10:56 p.m. June 21, 2010.

    • Joan…thank you so much for the update!

      Jeremy

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