Moisture from Alex = Holiday Rain Chance

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the holiday weekend forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog.  While we are immune to hurricanes in Wisconsin, the remnants and moisture left from them can impcat our weather.  Case and point will be this holiday weekend.  Several days ago Hurricane Alex slammed into the Mexico coast as a category 2 hurricane.

The hurricane quickly weakened and is now just a remnant low spinning over north-central Mexico.  The problem, is that when Alex hit Mexico, the counter-clockwise circulation with the storm pushed lots of moisture from the Gulf into Texas.  This moisture is now being pulled north as south winds develp across the Midwest on the backside of high pressure in the Ohio Valley.

The moisture has translated into clouds and showers in the Plains.  The visible satellite on Friday afternoon showed the clouds already pushing into far southern Minnesota!  Just click on the image to enlarge.

    

The moisture will continue to get pulled north on Saturday, as surface winds and winds just off the ground will be out of a southerly direction from the Plains into the Midwest.  For southeast Wisconsin we will be just far enough east to keep mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid-80s.  A great start to the holiday weekend!

But on Sunday, the combination of tropical moisture flowing into our area, and also a cold front nearing the region will translate into a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  I think any rain that occurs on Sunday(4th of July) should hold off until the afternoon. 

Below is a forecast map from the 18Z NAM for Sunday afternoon.  The green represents rain.  Notice the tropical connection from Mexico all the way north into Wisconsin!

While severe weather chances will be very low for Sunday and Monday, any showers or thunderstorms that develop could produce heavy downpours.  Since we are dealing with tropical moisture, there could be some tropical-like downpours!

Don’t cancel any outdoor plans this weekend, but just keep in mind rain chances will be the highest Sunday p.m. and also on Monday.

Have a great holiday weekend!

Jeremy Nelson

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5 Responses

  1. Any guess on rain totals for Sunday through Tuesday? Do we need to be concerned for flooding issues?

    • Lori,

      Rain totals will vary greatly. I could see a few isolated spots picking up 1.00″-1.50″+, but also some areas that see little to no rain. Widely scattered stuff for the most part. I know that doesn’t help much, but there are some rain chances ahead. Jeremy

      • how about the rain totals expected in Kenosha?

      • Pinning down an exact total for any community is going to be tough. At 6p on WISN 12 News I showed an accumulated rainfall map thru Monday. It had 1″-2″ in spots of southeast Wisconsin, but also some locations with under a half inch of rain. Totals will vary quite a bit, but if you get under a t-storm, the rain will be heavy. Jeremy

  2. Should keep fire danger down resulting from wayward fireworks…that is an upside to the rain chances?

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