Summer Forecast Review & Rain Chances

***Watch WISN 12 News for Milwaukee’s most accurate forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  I hope everyone had an enjoyable 4th of July holiday!  Overall the weather was perfect for the extended holiday.  With the mid-point of Meteorological summer now behind us, I thought it would be a good time to look back at the summer forecast posted exclusively in the blog back in late May.

Before we look at the summer forecast, let’s check out the numbers from June in Milwaukee.

  • Rainfall  6.93″ (+3.37″)
  • Average Monthly Temperature  68.6 (+2.3)

As of this writing, the first 5 days of July have been warm and very dry in Milwaukee.

The long range forecast below was posted in the blog on May 27, 2010.  The forecast is based on a weather pattern theory called the ‘LRC’ that we have discussed many times in the blog.  Below is the forecast as it was posted on May 27.  So far the forecast has worked out very well!

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Temperatures

Forecast: Above Average

Discussion: The current pattern has only produced 1 month(October) with below average temperatures from October-May.  I expect the trend of above average temperatures to continue into summer.  The warmest temperatures of the summer may occur around July 18-25.  This pairs with other warm-ups in previous parts of the cycle, including the 86 & 88 degree temperatures from May 23-24. 

As a side note, Milwaukee averages 10 days each summer with a high of 90 or warmer.  I think the warmest high temperature this summer in Milwaukee will be 95 degrees.

Rainfall

Forecast: Around Average (11.17″)

Discussion: Predicting summer rainfall is always tricky.  Thunderstorms are spotty by nature, and can produce a wide range of rainfall totals.  But based on the pattern over the last 8 months, I think we will hang close to average this summer in regards to rainfall.

June looks like the wettest month of the summer.  Active periods for weather to watch for come around June 7-9 and then a wetter period the last week to 10 days of the month.  This is when the ‘signature’ storm should occur.  Severe weather season should heat up in June, and likely will be the most active of the summer.  Several disturbances will pass by in the more active parts of the pattern.

***As a side note…the pattern begins to break down in late July and into August.  Out of the next 3 months, the forecast confidence for August is the lowest.*** 

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If you have questions on how the long range forecast was put together, or any other thoughts on the summer just post your questions to the comments section of the blog.

Weather conditions for Tuesday-Thursday will be impacted by a very slow moving cold front(basically stationary) off to our west.  Being east of the front means several things.  It will stay warm/hot and humid.  There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Best rain chances though will hold off until Wednesday and Thursday.

Below is the forecast for Wednesday afternoon from the NAM computer model.  While severe weather is not expected, when the rain finally arrives, there could be heavy downpours.

Remember you can stay up-to-date with our forecast in many ways!

  • Facebook: WeatherWatch 12
  • Twitter: WISN12News
  • iPhone App: WISN
  • WISN 12 News 5-7a and 5, 6, & 10p

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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3 Responses

  1. Jeremy~What do you think our rain total could be through Thursday?

    • Wow…tough question. I could put about any number from nothing to 2″ out there and possibly be right for some spot in the viewing area. Any showers or t-storms that form(especially on Wed/Thu) could bring heavy downpours to the area. The question is when does the front to our west finally decide to move east. Overall I would say most locations will see a half inch or more of rain. Jeremy

  2. Are any of your models picking up on a potential heat wave late next week into the following weekend? Tom Skilling of Chicago mentioned this in his blog last night. I suppose it wouldn’t be too surprising since the mid months of November, January, March, and May were all notably above average periods.

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