Severe Threat Late Tonight

Happy Saturday. A nice summer day in SE Wisconsin. Humidity is not as bad as I thought it would be yesterday. It certainly is hot with temperatures near 90. This will likely be our 5th day this year to hit 90. It is a little cooler right next to the lake which is probably good news for the folks at Festa Italiana and Fish Day in Port Washington.

Now the focus turns to tonight and the chances of severe weather. First of all, this evening will be just fine. Enjoy it. The storms would arrive after midnight. There still are some questions about if the storms will stay north and west of us. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center keeps our western counties in the slight risk.

The moderate risk is well to our west where tornadoes and large hail are possible. The biggest threat in our area would be damaging winds if a bow segment develops and moves our way. Here is the current surface map:

Note our dew point. It is only in the low 60s. I thought we would be closer to a 70 degree dew point today. The lower the dew point, the lesser our chances for severe weather, however, the higher dew points to our west will likely move in as the day moves on.

The RPM model is not overly impressed with the storms as they move into our area.

The above image is a forecast for 1:30 AM tonight. Currently, the storms are in eastern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. They are slowly moving SE, so I will keep a close eye on them throughout the afternoon and evening. I believe another cluster of storms will develop over North and South Dakota later today and those storms will have a better chance of being severe. Those storms will likely stay to our west.

Stay with weather watch 12 for the latest. Have a great weekend.

Mark

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4 Responses

  1. Not related to this particular topic, but after looking at your 7 day I was wondering if this big heat wave you guys have been talking about is going to be weaker than thought or is it just being pushed back into early the following week?

    • Daniel,
      The big ridge is still to our west. I still believe it will slide to the east and that will bring us the hot weather by next weekend. It is a bit delayed. Thanks for the note.
      Mark

  2. Thanks for the update. Is there a new rain total forecast for our area through Sunday?

    • Sorry, Lori,

      Just got this. Most areas missed the rain, but northern and southern counties picked up around .50″. Thanks.

      Mark

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