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Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties under a severe thunderstorm watch until 5AM. A line of storms is moving through northern Wisconsin moving SE at 35 to 40 miles per hour. If these storms hold together, our northern counties would be hit around 2 AM. Stay with weather watch 12 and Interactive Radar on wisn.com for the latest. The image below is from 11 PM on Tuesday night.
Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog. As I continue to fill-in for Sally Severson this week look for an updated blog entry each morning to start your day!
After a brief break from the heat and humidity, it is back for today and part of Wednesday. Dew points will surge into the low 70s by Tuesday afternoon, and combining this with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, the heat index will climb into the 90s.
A few storms will slide across northern Wisconsin Tuesday, the southern extend could graze Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties in the afternoon.
The heat and humidity, combined with a cold front, will lead to showers and thunderstorms across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The storms will hold off around Milwaukee until after midnight. The forecast surface map below shows the cold front position at 7 a.m. Wednesday, with at least a chance of showers or thunderstorms in our area.
The timing of the storms leads me to believe that we will see a weakening area of rain as it pushes toward southeast Wisconsin. Generally storms weaken around 4-7 a.m., and I think that will be the case this time. This is good news, because it should keep any widespread heavy rain out of our area. It will still be possible to get heavy downpours within individual thunderstorms, but I don’t think this is a good setup for widespread heavy rain.
The cold front will slowly push through during the morning, and should exit our area in the afternoon. The timing will be key, because as the atmosphere heats up around Noon, another round of storms will begin to develop. The redevelopment of storms is when severe weather is possible. Below is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday. Notice that just a sliver of southeast Wisconsin is included in the slight risk area.
By 2-3 p.m., the storms should clear our viewing area, and then drier air will begin to work in. As I mentioned, the threat for heavy rain is low for this event. Our in-house computer model shows how the storms weaken as they near, and then begin to build again as they near northeast Illinois. Overall, a few spots could pick up a 0.50″ or more of rain, but most areas will not see too much this time.
Behind the front, Thursday looks like another very nice day with low humidity and temps around 80. Until then, expect warm and humid weather to prevail.
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Have a great day!