Heavy Rain Chances For Tuesday

Welcome to August. It was a foggy start this morning, but turned into a beautiful Sunday. I hope everyone enjoyed it. There are storms erupting to our west across Minnesota where there is a tornado watch, but I believe those storms will stay north of us.

Warmer weather is set to move in on Monday and it will be sticky with dew points in the low 70s. Tuesday is the only day of weather concern this week. Any time you have the high dew points and a front nearby, there is some concern for heavy rain. A warm front will set up just south of us on Tuesday and that will allow plenty of moisture to pour in from the south. The front will provide the lift to kick off the storms. There still are plenty of questions on how much rain we are going to get. We use many different computer models to make our forecasts here at Weather Watch 12. I want to show you the differences between all four for Tuesday’s rain. We’ll start with the RPM model.

The RPM brings about an inch of rain mainly to our southern counties. Next is the NAM.

The NAM keeps most of the heavy rain just south of us in Northern Illinois. Next is the GFS.

The GFS is more bullish with rain for us with most of the area getting around 1″. Finally, let’s check out the forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

HPC bulls-eyes our area with around 1.5″ of rain. With all the heavy rain in June and July we really don’t need any more rainfall for a while. The ground is saturated and can’t take in too much moisture before it all becomes runoff.

Because the rain is still 48 hours away there are still some questions about exactly where the storms will line up. Make sure you stay tuned to the forecast later today and on Monday.

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

Mark

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4 Responses

  1. How useful can it be to have so many models available when this is what they come up with. Not to mention when they all do agree on something (supposed heat wave of mid July, supposed heat wave this upcoming weekend and beyond) they end up wrong anyways.

    Certainly not a knock on you guys, just that the forecasting tools seem to be losing a lot of validity lately.

    • Daniel,

      The key is to figure out which one is working the best or taking the best from each model. We have been fortunate to miss out on the big heat waves. The ridge continues to hang to our west keeping the hottest weather there.
      Thanks.
      Mark

  2. Please let us know when you have a better idea on which of these rainfall amounts we will likely see. Is there any chance of seeing even heavier amounts? I hope not.

    • Lori,

      Each model run keeps putting heavier rainfall totals. We will know a lot more tomorrow. Thanks.
      Mark

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