More Heat, Humidity, & Storms

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  After a 2 day break from the heat and humidity, it will surge back in this weekend.  In this entry we will discuss the next round of soupy air and also talk about numerous rain chances in the forecast.

First, a few spotty showers popped up as a weak disturbance neared southeast Wisconsin late Friday.  The showers were isolated, but enough to dampen a few plans and put some frowns on those attending the Wisconsin State Fair.  Since these showers were diurnally driven(they need the sun’s energy to survice) they quickly fade once the sun sets.  Below is a visible satellite image from late Friday…I always like to these images are worth a 1000 words!

What’s cool about the image above is that you can tell the upper level winds were out of the northwest.  That is because the clouds were aligned from northwest to southeast.  The ‘thicker’ clouds were in Milwaukee…and those contained the isolated showers.

Now the focus for the weekend will be two fold, more heat and humidity, and rain chances.  Let’s start with the heat and humidity.  Saturday should see highs top out in the mid-80s with just a slight increase in humidity, dew points will climb into the mid-60s.  By Sunday, much warmer and more humid air will surge in.  This will mean highs in the upper 80s and dew points around 75 degrees!

Below is the dew point forecast for late Sunday.  Notice the 75 degree dew points moving into southeast Wisconsin.

Also on Sunday, a front will be near the region, this along with heat and plenty of moisture could lead to showers and thunderstorms.  Any rain on Sunday should occur after 2 or 3 p.m.  Some of the storms may be strong to severe…so we’ll keep a close eye on later Sunday.  Remember, whenever severe weather strikes day or night, you can tune to WISN 12 to get an update on the severe weather.

Now, which day will be the most miserable with the highest heat indices?  Below is the 500mb forecast map from the 12Z GFS.  This is valid for Tuesday, which I think will be the hottest day across much of the Midwest, and here in Milwaukee highs should touch 90 degrees, with a heat index of 95-100 degrees.

Make sure to watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the heat and humidity, and for live radar updates!

Have a great weekend!

Jeremy Nelson

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6 Responses

  1. Jeremy~Is there any day next week where if we are going to see heavy rain it is most likely to occur? Do you think we are going to set yet another record for rainfall in August?

    • Lori,

      If we set any rainfall records in August that would be really bad news for our area. Hard to pick any one day out of the bunch right now. Any little trigger that sets off showers and t-storms in the very humid airmass could result in heavy rain in spots. We’ll be tracking this closely, but our first bout with storms may come in on Sunday.

      Jeremy

  2. Tuesday you say. I guess it isn’t any surprise. 😉

    • We won’t be 100 like KC, but barring morning storms, we should see 90 or better.

      Jeremy

  3. I can’t wait to see how this all plays out. Other than the general agreement of heat, humidity, and the possibility of rain, there are so many different takes on what is going to happen exactly. Biggest differences include…
    1 – which days will be hotter than others
    2 – how hot it will get at its peak
    3 – the rain being afternoon pop up storms or MCS clusters

    I’ll throw out a wild guess right now and say we hit 94 on one of these days. After all, you did say in your summer forecast we’d top off at 95 so this week is probably the last chance. Tuesday does look like the best bet, but Thursday might have a say as well.

    • Daniel,

      Based on what has happened so far this summer, I’m holding back a bit on forecasting a really hot day or two. Couple of things of note. The ridge has never really pushed into our area this summer…we have just been on the edge. Also, the models will forecast storms to stay just north of our area, but they somehow find a way to slide in. With that said, I think to get one completely dry and mostly sunny day will be tough. Especially with high dew points and soil moisture being high. So for now, I’ll stick with 90 on Tuesday, but I could see low 90s for a couple of days. And of course, timing out convection is always tough.

      Jeremy

      Jeremy

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