Severe Weather Risk & Rain Potential

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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog.  Remember, this is your home for Milwaukee’s inside scoop on anything weather related.  Make sure to bookmark the blog and check back often for updates each day!

As advertised, more heat and humidity returned to the region on Saturday.  The humid weather conditions will continue to build in for Sunday.  Dew points from Sunday through much of this upcoming week will remain in the 68-75 degree range…yuck!

Along with the tropical dew points, very warm temperatures can be expected each day.  Daytime highs will likely fall in the 85-90 degree range from Sunday into next weekend

When many look at the 7 day forecast one thing will stand out.  Numerous chances of showers and t-storms throughout the week.  I want to stress a couple of points.  Not all locations will see rain on the days that rain is in the forecast.  The rain should be scattered.  But with a lot of moisture in place, any storms that form could produce heavy downpours and possibly a quick 1 inch of rain or more.

Depending on where clusters of thunderstorms known as ‘MCS’s’ travel over the next 3-5 days will go a long way in determining our rainfall total for the week.  The Hydrological Prediction Center issues rainfall forecasts out to 5 days.  Below is the latest HPC forecast through early Thursday.  This ONE forecast puts the bullseye for rain over wester-central Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota and Iowa.  Some locations could see 6″+ of rain this week!  Just click on the image to enlarge.

 

Overall the forecast above has southeast Wisconsin in the 1 to 2 inch rain band.  Remember, this is just one forecast and a slight shift either way could mean more or less rain.  If our area did see an inch or so of rain, I think we could absorb it since the first week of August has been mainly dry.  That is unless that one inch fell in 15 to 30 minutes!

The first widespread chance for thunderstorms is in the forecast for Sunday.  While a few storms could push through parts of the area to start the day, the focus will be on the afternoon.  With the peak of daytime heating moisture, lift, and instability should be in place for storms to develop.

Any storms that form could produce heavy rain and strong winds.  There is a slight risk of severe weather across southern Wisconsin on Sunday.  Below is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  The slight risk covers a large part of the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.

If severe weather develops day or night, we will be WISN 12 to keep you updated and safe!  You can always track storms or just a gentle rain from the comfort of your home with our interactive radar.  Just click below to give it a try!

www.wisn.com/irad

Finally, with the information that I provided you above, it is now your turn to play the role of Meteorologist.  Please take a moment to answer our poll question!

Have a great weekend and tune to WISN 12 News for the updates!

Jeremy Nelson

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9 Responses

  1. Enjoy your rain. We suddenly have forgotten what it looks like within the ridge…

  2. Play meteorologist… alright. Starting tomorrow 87, 91, 90, 87, 89, 88, 86.

    • Not bad…I think winds may be SE on Monday, which could hold back temps. Being on the edge of a ridge makes for very tough temp forecasts.

      Jeremy

    • 86,83,88,91,86,84,86

      • I took all the 90s out of the forecast from 6pm on. Too many clouds and high dew points may keep us out of the low 90s this week.

        Jeremy

  3. Dewpoints are a factor…but I think much depends on the wind direction. The last two weeks KC was on the edge of the ridge and pulled out low to mid 90s with dewpoints between 70-80. Granted, you are much further north, but would think even with mid 70s for dewpoints, squeezing out a 90 degree day with SW winds is possible. Things are starting to dry out a bit to your south… Areas as far north now as Kansas have not seen measurable precip in about three weeks.

    Won’t take long to dry up Iowa/Nebraska…

    • A day or two next week, 850 temps near MKE may touch in the 20s.

    • 88 today and that’s with storms this morning and the sun not coming out until around noon. Dews have stayed below 70 for the most part though so while it has been unpleasant, it hasn’t been miserable.

      It’s a catch-22 though because even if higher dews limit the high temps a little, the heat index gets just as high, even a bit higher and that’s really the only temp that matters when you’re outside.

      • Daniel,

        The temp jumped as dew points were a little lower today. A wake low formed on the backside of the rain this morning. As it left the decending air was drier and kept our skies mostly sunny in the afternoon. A nice Sunday! More moisture this evening/tonight should result in a few storms.

        Jeremy

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