Rain Totals & T-Storm/Severe Chances

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for Milwaukee’s most accurate forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  In this entry we will focus on the timing of more thunderstorm chances, and also look at the severe weather outlook for early this week.

Let’s start with rainfall totals from early Sunday.  Below is a list that I received from viewers and also from automated weather stations.  If you do not see your community listed, just drop your total in the comments section of the blog.

  • Juneau  0.75″
  • Fond du Lac  0.51″
  • Waukesha  0.50″
  • Brown Deer  0.50″
  • Sheboygan  0.35″
  • Milwaukee Mitchell  0.30″
  • Racine  0.12″

The heaviest rain Sunday morning fell in southwest Wisconsin.  Cuba City picked up 3.69″ of rain in just 2 hours!  Below is the NEXRAD rainfall estimates.  Just click to enlarge.

More rain chances are in the forecast thru Wednesday.  That is mainly because a large ridge of high pressure is sitting to our south.  Upper level ridges often translate into hot temperatures in the summer.  On Sunday afternoon the heat was beginning to push north.  Below is a surface map at 3 p.m.  While it was 86 degrees in Milwaukee with a dew point of 66, it was a steamy 94 in Dew Moines with a dew point of 78.  Triple digit heat was sitting down in parts of Kansas! 

Since we are sitting on the northern edge of a large upper level ridge, we will be close to the ‘ring of fire’.  The ‘fire’ is the on and off showers and thunderstorms that ride along the dividing line between extreme heat and humidity and slightly cooler and less humid air to the north.  The jet stream helps guide the rain over the same areas, as long as the ridge remains stationary.  This is why some locations in the Midwest may see heavy rain.  Just look back to yesterday’s blog entry where I showed parts of Minnesota and Iowa that may see several inches of rain this week.

Below is a good graphic that I found to explain the ‘ring of fire’.

While we will miss out on high temperatures of 92-100 degrees this week, we will see the humid plume of tropical air keep dew points in the low 70s across southeast Wisconsin.  With all the moisture in place, and daily t-storm chances, we will keep a close eye on the possibility of heavy downpours in our immediate area.

Again, it won’t rain all day, and some spots may even miss out on the rain one or two days.

Outside of heavy rain, a couple of storms could contain strong winds.  While the main severe weather threat is pushed west of our viewing area on Monday, a slight shift east could bring the stronger storms near.  Let’s hope any severe weather stays clear of our area this week!  Remember, day or night we will keep you updated on WISN 12 when severe weather strikes!

Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday. 

For the next several days timing storms will be tricky, so make sure to watch WISN 12 News for the latest radar updates and our 48 hour forecasts using our high resolution computer model.

Have a great day and please send along rain totals and storm reports!

Jeremy Nelson

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6 Responses

  1. Hi, Jeremy!

    Just letting you know that the rainfall total this Sunday a.m. in Reeseville –{located between Beaver Dam and Watertown} was one-half inch — in about an hour and a half time period.

    Don Steinberg

  2. Enjoy. Here a bit further south…I fully expect the egg on the hood news articles, heat related deaths, and bank thermometers blowing up. Natural temps could touch 100-110, nevermind the heat index with dewpoints in the 70s.

    Certainly a new pattern should be forming very soon. I hope.

    • The watch is well west of our area. Should get some leftovers around 4-5 a.m.

      Jeremy

  3. Rainfall total in Reeseville {Dodge County — between Beaver Dam and Watertown} from Monday a.m. storm{s} was one inch. Combined with total rainfall from Sunday a.m. storm{s}, Reeseville has received a total of 1 and 1/2 inches out of the two rain events.

    Will keep you updated. Reporting in is fun! The Weatherwatch 12 Team is the best!!!

    Don Steinberg

    • Thanks for posting Don! I mentioned your total yesterday!

      Jeremy

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