Happy Tuesday. Another hot one with Milwaukee making it to 90 for the 10th time this year. Dew points have been in the low 70s all day. Thankfully, there is a breeze to blow around the hot air.
A line of storms has been holding together all day across Minnesota and western Wisconsin. These are not severe and our well ahead of the cold front, but will still bring rain to much of our area. This will be round one.
You can see there are only a few areas of red on the radar screen at 3:30 PM. These are the only areas with thunderstorms. The rest is a general rainfall. The rain is moving NNE at 25mph with the entire line gradually shifting to the east. I suspect that this line will make it through much of our area, but chances of severe storms is very small. The greater instability (lift from the cold front and jet stream position) is well to our west. The cold front will not arrive until about dawn on Wednesday. Another round of storms may move in at that time, but again this is not expected to be severe due to overnight/early morning stability keeping the storms in check. Here is how it looks on the RPM computer model. We’ll start with 7pm.
The RPM really diminishes the first line. I’m not completely taken with this result. I think that some of the storms will make it to the metro in the middle of the evening.
By 3AM, the next line tries to move into the area. This line is associated with the cold front. Some storms may have heavy rain, but the line should be moving along nicely.
By 5:30 AM, the cold front is just about on top of Milwaukee. The rain showers may hold on early on Wednesday, but the rest of the day should be dry. Thursday is a different story. The cold front will retreat north as a very slow-moving warm front/stationary front. This, along with a strong low pressure center, deep trough, and strong jet stream will bring another round of storms to the area. Severe weather is possible. The position of the front will make a big difference. If it is able to make it through much of the area and we warm up significantly on Thursday, our weather will have to be monitored quite closely. Furthermore, heavy rain is a possibility on Thursday. Take a look at the forecast rainfall from now-Thursday on the RPM.
If this holds true, parts of the state could pick up 4″ of rain. We will be watching closely. Please stay tuned and have a great day.