Marvelous Monday, But Rain On The Way

Another fantastic day. Temperatures in the middle 70s and low humidity with a nice breeze. Sounds pretty good to me. We are not done with the great weather. Tuesday and Wednesday are still looking fairly sunny with comfortable temperatures.

However, rain is back in the forecast starting Wednesday night. There is the potential for heavy rain and some storms. Most of the computer models are in fair agreement with rainfall amounts. Take a look at a comparison. Let’s start with the NAM model.

Click on the image to enlarge. The NAM starts the rain about 10 PM Wednesday and ends it by 10AM Thursday. Some rain totals over 1″ expected from the NAM.

Now, on to the GFS model.

The rainfall amounts between the NAM and GFS are quite similar. The GFS brings the rain in earlier, around 5pM Wednesday, and keeps going until about 3PM Thursday. I don’t believe this scenario. The upper air pattern is progressive enough to keep the low pressure center moving through. I believe most of the rain will fall during the night on Wednesday night with a few leftover showers on Thursday morning. This conclusion coincides with the RPM forecast.

All three models are fairly close with precipitation amounts, keeping the really heavy rain in Iowa and Illinois, but still giving us a .50″ to 1.5″ forecast with some areas approaching 2″. We’ll keep a close eye on it and stay tuned to weather watch 12 for the latest.

Speaking of forecasts, tomorrow’s primary weather across the state looks pretty good. Most of the state will be dry with comfortable temperatures around 70 degrees. The only part of the state that may get rain is the Southwestern portion of Wisconsin. Weather should cooperate with a decent turnout.

The biggest weather question of this forecast is the weekend. There is a lot of cold air building in Canada, but the question is how far south it will come. If it does not make it to us, it will be a warm weekend. Otherwise, it will not be too pretty. I am going to punt  this one right now and let Jeremy talk about this in the next few days.

Thanks for reading.

Mark

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