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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! Over the past 10 months exclusively in the blog, I have introduced and used a weather pattern theory called the LRC to make long range forecasts. According to the theory the weather pattern that will occur this winter, and right through next summer is just forming. Once the pattern is set, it will begin to cycle and then accurate long range forecasts can be made. By mid-November I will put all my analysis together, and present the winter forecast for our area, including a range of how much snow I think will fall.
Before that time arrives, to wet your appetite and also for comparison sake, the winter forecast for 2010-11 from NOAA/NWS was just released. In this blog entry we’ll go over the NOAA winter outlook, and also take a look at how this forecast was created.
The biggest question most people ask is, “how much snow?” While NOAA does not answer that, it does place far southeast Wisconsin on the edge of the wetter than average precipitation outlook. The core of the above average precipitation according to this forecast should reside in the Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest, along with the Pacific Northwest. Just click on the map to enlarge.
Now let’s check out temperatures. A large part of the nation is in either the equal chances for above average or below average temperatures, or the chance of warmer than average temperatures. In our area it looks like we fall around average according to this forecast.
In reading the discussion that accompanied the NOAA outlook the #1 factor they used to make the forecast was this:
A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.
Both maps above pretty much follow the blueprint for a La Nina winter, according to NOAA. A point that was made in the discussion that I disagree with is this:
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
While I admit that predicting exact snowfall amounts for a storm days, weeks, or a month in advance is extremely difficult, I do think by using the LRC, as I did last winter, accurate long range forecasts that pinpoint storms that will occur based on the pattern is possible.
If you remember back to this past summer the long range forecast that we posted here in the blog based on the LRC, out performed the NOAA summer forecast which called for below average temperatures in southeast Wisconsin. At this point, since the pattern is not set, I can’t point to specific parts of the NOAA winter outlook that I agree or disagree with.
I am excited to show everyone that reads this blog the new pattern and what it means for our winter here in southeast Wisconsin. Look for our winter forecast coming up later in November! Could our active weather in the next 2-3 weeks hold the key for this winter? The analysis continues and remember, the weather pattern is still forming!
If you have questions on the NOAA outlook I’ll do my best to answer, or on the weather pattern theory that I use for make long range forecasts! Make sure to check out WISN 12 News for the latest on weekend rain showers, and track the rain on our interactive radar, just click www.wisn.com/irad