There’s rain on the radar

After another beautiful day there is actually some rain on the radar. This is big news because we have only received .05″ of an inch of rain over the last 25 days. Take a look at the radar.

When you look at the radar, it looks like rain is falling from Ozaukee county all the way back to Minneapolis. However, there is something you can’t see with radar. It’s the dry air near the surface that is evaporating almost all of the rain before it hits the ground. This is called “virga.” Our dew points are very low right now, indicating the dry air near the surface. The radar beam is hitting rain falling out of the clouds, but the radar beam is above the surface. The rain never makes it to the ground. We do have a chance of a few showers, but I’m not expecting much more than a few sprinkles. Here are three models showing what to expect on Monday morning. The first is the RPM.

The RPM does not give us much if any rain. Only a few light showers show up in northern Illinois. The next model is the NAM.

The NAM tries to squeeze out a tiny bit of rain across the area, but  only a trace. The final model is much more bullish on rainfall. Here is the GFS.

The GFS actually gives part of SE Wisconsin a tenth of an inch. You should know that the GFS is biased in overblowing the amount of moisture in most systems.

So if you were hoping for some needed rainfall, you are going to have to wait a little longer. It will be another dry week with only a chance of showers on Saturday night and Sunday. Stay tuned. Thanks for reading.

Mark

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