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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! If you missed yesterday’s blog entry it is worth looking because it discusses the big weather pattern change that is about to occur. Leading up to that big change will be several ups and downs in the forecast, and also a few rain chances.
Temperatures have been above normal this October in Milwaukee. A quick scan of the number of days with a high temperature of 60 or higher in October over the past 6 years produces some interesting results.
- 2010 16 (thru October 20)
- 2009 5
- 2008 13
- 2007 21
- 2006 9
- 2005 16
By the time this month ends, it should rival 2005 in regards to mild days. The final 7-10 days of October will bring with them plenty of temperature swings, and likely some beneficial rain.
One of the temperature swings and small rain chances moves our way in the next 18-24 hours. A cold front will drop across the western Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. This front will push some clouds in our direction, and also a few spotty showers. Any rain that nears southeast Wisconsin will have to overcome dry air. While a lot of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground, a few sprinkles and spotty showers are possible Wednesday evening…even in Milwaukee.
Below is the surface map showing the forecast position of the front at 7 p.m. Wednesday.
Behind the front, one ‘chilly’ day is on tap for Thursday. Gusty northwest winds will keep temperatures in check. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of our northern counties in the viewing area see highs in the upper 40s! Around Milwaukee I think we sneak into the 50s. Check out the temperature forecast map for Thursday at 1 p.m. This is from the NAM computer model.
Just as temperature swings occur with the active pattern ahead, there will be several chances for precipitation. One long range computer model(GFS) that we use as guidance provides rainfall forecasts 16 days in advance. The map that I’m about to show you flucuates each time the computer model comes out with a new run. But I want to show you this to illustrate the point that while the areas of heaviest precipitation will shift around in the upcoming days, the chances of seeing cumulative rainfall amounts of over 1 inch thru early November look likely.
I labeled the two shades of green that cover southeast Wisconsin and the amount of liquid precipitation they represent.
I think most people will welcome some rain to the area. And who knows, maybe we’ll see our first snowflakes of the season in the next few weeks? No way to tell this far out, but we will keep an eye on what looks like a busy weather pattern ahead!
Have a great day and let me know your thoughts on the changes that are about to occur! Just post your thoughts to the comments section.