***Watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for Milwaukee’s most accurate forecast!***
Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! Another stretch of mild weather is upon us in southeast Wisconsin. High temperatures for the next several days will be well above average. Keep in mind the average high is now in the 40s in most areas!
In today’s blog we’ll look at the possibility of record highs for our area, and also do another check of the weather pattern. Let’s start with the warm weather!
Monday’s high was 66 in Milwaukee, and today should be another day on the right side of 60 too. By Wednesday, south to southeast winds will keep the mild weather locked in with highs again in the 60s. The record high in Milwaukee on November 10 is 65 degrees set in 1999. If winds stay more south, versus southeast on Wednesday, I think we stand a good chance of making a run at this record.
Below is the latest forecast temperature map for Wednesday at 1 p.m. This is from the NAM computer model. Notice the 60s pushing into southeast Wisconsin. The only question is how quickly winds turn to a southeast direction and move some of the cooler air above Lake Michigan inland? This will be the big determining factor in whether or not we break a record on Wednesday.
The mild weather will hang around our area for much of this week. Could this be a trend for the winter? What does our current weather pattern say about what’s ahead? These are all questions that I’m working on answering. Last week I did a blog titled “Is The Pattern Set?” In that entry I discussed a weather pattern theory called the LRC that I use to make long range forecasts.
Remember, the weather pattern just began to set up in early October. Determining the cycle length then allows us to make long range forecasts based on the pattern and locations of the long term longwave ridges and troughs. Last week I talked about the possibility of the cycle being 36-38 days this year, but mentioned that this was a very early estimate.
A quick way to check on the pattern is by looking at the upper level 500mb charts. Let’s first look at an archived 500mb chart from October 5. Remember this is a map in the middle of the atmosphere. It shows upper level lows in the East and West, basically an Omega Block pattern.
Now let’s compare this to the cycle length that I proposed in the blog last week of 36-38 days. The map below is a forecast 500mb map for November 10, Wednesday. This map shows an upper level low over the East, and a broader upper level trough over the West, with a ridge in between. The map below and the one above are 36 days apart!
Please keep in mind as the jet stream strengthens and moves south, an omega block pattern with cut-off lows will likely not occur. So the broader trough in the West is a good sign of how the pattern will act with more flow. Overall this still looks like a good match to me…but is this really the cycle length for the next 9 months?
I will post the winter forecast including how much snow I think will fall in southeast Wisconsin here in the blog the week of Thanksgiving.
What are your thoughts on the theory and possible pattern? Just let me know in the comments section of the blog. And make sure to watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for more on our possible record warmth!
Have a great day!