Weekend Questions

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for Milwaukee’s most accurate forecast!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  The fantastic November weather that we have experienced the past 2 days should continue for at least another day or two.  Expect more highs in the 60s!

That is the good news, now to the tricky part of the forecast.  And of course it involves the weekend.  A storm will approach the area Friday Night into Saturday.  With several different computer models to choose from there is a wide array of possibilites heading several days out.

Right now it looks like the main surface low will track west of Milwaukee, but just how far west will have a big impact on the chance of rain.  Let’s start by looking at the latest 12Z GFS forecast for 1 p.m. Saturday.  This model takes the surface low into southwest Wisconsin by afternoon.  Notice the darker green shades which represent a steadier rain, or possible rain/snow mix west of the blue dashed line near Minneapolis.  Around Milwaukee some very light rain or drizzle may occur. 

 

Now model #2, the 12Z NAM.  This forecast takes the slightly stronger low farther west over northeast Iowa.  It is a warmer solution and would keep almost the entire precipitation area rain.  This would indicate a dry morning and early afternoon in Milwaukee.

For right now we are still sticking with a chance of a few showers on Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans, please don’t cancel them this weekend.  And if you are heading to the Wisconsin-Indiana game in Madison Saturday morning, I would at least through the poncho in the car and decide right before going into the game whether to bring it with or not.

At the very least, it looks like another storm that will not bring snow to southeast Wisconsin at this time.  Make sure to watch WISN 12 News at 10 p.m. for the latest data on the weekend!

Before I wrap up this blog, I want to mention that after doing some work on the pattern yesterday, I think there is a good chance that the coldest air of the season will move over our area on or right around Thanksgiving!  Stay tuned!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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5 Responses

  1. As cold as it may be, I doubt it will rival Thanksgiving 2005 when it was in the teens throughout the day (high was 34 at midnight, but by 4 am it was in the teens and never recovered) with average sustained winds over 20 mph. Some of the family, including myself, were crazy enough to go for a little 20 minute walk too. Never again to that.

    • Daniel,

      Not putting any numbers on it yet, but if it happens I think it would clearly be the coldest air so far this season. I’m kind of doing some ‘test’ forecasts right now to see if the pattern is where I think it is. December is generally the month that confidence in the longer range forecasts increases.

      Jeremy

  2. Thanks for the peek at Thanksgiving Day weather. Does the pattern show a dry Thanksgiving week along with the colder air?

    • Lori,

      Hard to tell right now about precip. Again, I’m assuming I have a good handle on the cycle length, and then am trying to make some general forecast for the rest of this month. I will hold off on any precipitation discussion right now. If I see anything glaring about the week of Thanksgiving in the coming days I will post it in the blog.

      Jeremy

  3. Negative PNA and negative AO…fun part of the pattern…

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