More Active Pattern Ahead

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  I’m excited to announce that our Winter Forecast will air Tuesday, November 23 during our 10pm news!  Mark your calendar now, this will be a winter forecast like you’ve never seen before!

Now onto our current and future weather.  Tuesday’s high of 54 in Milwaukee marked the 13th time this month that highs have reached 50 or higher in Milwaukee.  We are on pace to meet or exceed the number for ALL of last November…which was 17 days at or above 50.

While this month will likely end with average monthly temperatures above average, there is some much colder air that will pay a visit in the months final week!

The first push of colder air will arrive with a quick punch on Thurday.  Nothing uncommon for November, but certainly much colder than we have grown accustomed to this month.  Highs Thursday will top out in the upper 30s to near 40 north of Milwaukee, with low 40s here in the city.  These temps are just a hair below our average of 45 in Milwaukee.

Below is the forecast temperature map for late in the day Thursday.  Just click to enlarge.

The first push of cold air will only last about 36 hours, and already by Friday highs should push back toward 50.  Another storm system will take shape and move our way from Sunday into early next week.  As of this writing, it looks like it would produce mainly rain for southeast Wisconsin, but we’ll keep a close eye on it.

Behind that storm I believe we will see the coldest temperatures of the season.  While this push of cold air may not last long, it would likely produce highs in the 30s for our area!  Below is a surface map for next Tuesday.  The blue lines are 500-1000mb thickness lines.  The lower the number on the blue line, generally the colder the air associated with it.  If you have questions on the map, just ask in the comments section of the blog. 

Along with the cold, the pattern for Thanksgiving week also will send at least 2 storm systems our way, one to start the week and another possible right around Thanksgiving.  The one later in the week is just beginning to show up on the map above over Idaho.  Keep in mind the storm tracks will shift around between now and then, but there is a chance of rain and snow next week, and also the coldest air of the season.

When the winter forecast airs I will discuss some of the active parts of the pattern and what they may mean for our area. 

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson


13 Responses

  1. “Wednesday’s high of 54 in Milwaukee”

    ^think you meant Tuesday there.

    A bit colder in the Twin Cities where I am at the moment. Didn’t even see snow until I got halfway between Eau Claire and Menomonie…

    • Fixed it, thanks. Please don’t bring back any snow when you return:)


  2. Jeremy so is the pattern length 36-38 days? Also I went to and read that the catalyst for determining the length of the pattern is the same thing that determines the number of tropical systems in a year. Interesting read. I know this is just a theory at this point, but as a logically minded person this all makes sense. So after having viewed things for almost a year what does Mark think of the LRC?

  3. I read Mr. Lezak’s winter outlook from his KC website. He says it’s 40-50 days but has yet to be pin pointed.

    Quote: “It is very likely between 40 and 50 days and we need another two or three weeks to narrow this range down.”

    • Josh,

      Remember when I posted the blog a few weeks ago I was saying, “Is the Pattern Set?” This is about the earliest we’ve tried to pin down the number of days in the cycle. So until we get to December the number may be in flux. Once the pattern is revealed, I think you will be amazed.


  4. Jeremy, I do indeed. I am, and I know others are as well, patiently awaiting the official numbers…

  5. 😉

  6. What do you think about the storm for next week SNOW or RAIN or nothing at all 😦

  7. I’ll be sure to watch the 10 PM news Tuesday.

    But, yeah, most of the storms in the near future are looking to bring rain. One of the later storms looks intriguing, though.

    I want some of the white stuff…bad. 😉


  8. Are people not in the MKE area able to watch the winter outlook via web feed on November 23 during your 10pm news?

    • Josh,

      It will be posted online, and a more extensive version in the blog.


      • I can hardly wait to see what your take is!

      • Excellent.

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