Wintry Weather Ahead?

***The Winter Forecast on WISN 12 News next Tuesday at 10pm!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  This has been a very busy week as I am preparing the winter forecast that will air next Tuesday at 10pm on WISN 12.  The pattern is unique once again this year, and I have a feeling that this winter will be much different than last year!

Just a quick update as the models are beginning to not only show a big cold snap for next week, but the potential for a more impressive storm somewhere in the nation’s mid-section is beginning to show up on at least one model.

Below is the surface forecast, and also the 850mb temperature forecast for late Wednesday of next week.  This forecast map is from the 18Z GFS.

This one solution would likely produce snow to the northwest of the low, and in this one snapshot, most of our area is northwest of the low.

Please keep in mind this is just one computer model forecast for 6 days down the road.  This storm will take many different looks between now and then, but one thing looks certain, much colder weather will move in for Thanksgiving.  Right now I have highs forecast in the 20s!  Brrrrrr….

So who wants snow?  Next week could produce the first measurable snow for our area, but will the storm take a favorable track for southeast Wisconsin?  Look for updates on WISN 12 News and right here in the blog!

Have a great day, and please leave your thoughts in the comments section of the blog!

Jeremy Nelson

Advertisements

14 Responses

  1. I predict we get at least 3 inches of snow for the Wednesday storm next week. It’s amazing that we have gotten to the point with technology that the models saw this cold snap coming about 3/4 days ago. Ahh the age that we live in.

  2. I NOTED this potential storm yesterday.

    I know this is still several days off, but I have a hunch that this system’s gonna bring us some accumulation.

    -Chris

  3. I noted this potential storm yesterday.

    I know this is still several days off, but I have a hunch that this system’s gonna bring us some accumulation.

    -Chris

  4. Actually I was hoping that the snow would hold off until late January ha ha. It can snow a bit on Christmas Eve then warm up. One good snowstorm in March and then melt the next day would be perfect.

    Guess that’s wishful thinking. Looking forward to seeing what snow we get next week. It will be good for the deer hunters I guess.

  5. Cliff, sounds like you should live in Tennessee. 🙂

    • Or Kansas City…pretty mild winters there. Except last winter;)

      Jeemy

  6. I don’t mind the cold of winter but dislike driving in snow. Well I checked the 600 GFS and for next Wednesday the model brought the area of Low Pressure right over Wisconsin.

  7. 1200Z GFS shows only light snow for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Also points to cold hanging around from Wednesday November 24th, with a warm up around the time of December 1st and 2nd.

    • Bryan,

      I’m not sold on any solution(outside of the cold at the moment). It will be fun to watch this weekend when the NAM is within reach of the possible storm, and also our in-house high resolution computer model! I’m going to keep snow showers in the forecast for Wednesday. Very possible we could see a day with highs of 20 to 25!

      Jeremy

  8. It looks more like the snow will come later into Thanksgiving Day, now. There’s still lots of time, though.

    I hope this becomes an exciting system. =P

    • Computer models are all over the place so we proabably won’t have a good idea of where the low pressure will go and how strong it will be until the beginning of next week. Crossing my fingers for a lot of snow though!!! 🙂

      • Justin,

        I’m highly confident of the cold for next week, snow chance is still the big question.

        Jeremy

  9. Jeremy, speaking of KC, if you’ve got five minutes I recommend checking out the past few entries and comments of Gary Lezak’s NBC blog, starting with the entry about his winter outlook… I am sure you are very familiar with the sparring that takes place between the usual suspects, yet I am sure each year is different and holds it’s own quality take.

    I am anxious to see what happens here next week.

    • Josh,

      I dealt with the constant back and forth for 3 years, sometimes it gets a little too harsh. Without a doubt there are skeptics of the LRC and there should be, it is just a theory. Mark was a HUGE skeptic last year when I arrived at 12. Now a year later he see’s the value in the LRC and that it actually exists. The LRC isn’t perfect, but it is hands down the best tool I’ve seen to aide in making accurate long range forecasts.

      All I ask is that people follow along for a year, and then make a judgement either way.

      Jeremy

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: