Thanksgiving Week’s Big Storm

Not the prettiest Sunday, but our temperatures were back above average again today. I’m writing this at 6:45 in the evening and our current temperature is 56 degrees. Our average high is 43. We will actually hit 60 tomorrow, but you will have to dodge some raindrops and an isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

This is one of the busiest travel weeks of the year and of course we have a very active weather pattern this week. Tonight and tomorrow’s rain showers should not cause too many problems. The cold air with this will keep any snow or freezing rain in Minnesota and extreme NW Wisconsin.

Tuesday will be much colder, but quiet weather is expected. The bigger storm arrives late in the day on Wednesday. I have been watching this closely since last week when my cold kept me at home for two days. I’m encouraged by the northward and westward movement of the low pressure with each passing model runs. This would mean more rain for us than snow due to southerly winds drawing in warmer air into Wisconsin. Take a look at three models and there take on the upcoming storm. Let’s start with the NAM.

Note the blue zero line north of our area. That would keep the frozen precipitation north of us. The above image is from midnight Wednesday night.

 

The image above is from the GFS model at the same time as the NAM. Midnight Wednesday night. The zero line is also north of our area.

Finally, the above image is the RPM model. It is from Wednesday afternoon at 3pm. The RPM only is run out to 72 hours. The things to note are the position of the low…well to our west, near Omaha, and the rain area being pushed through much of Wisconsin.

As long as the low stays in this position, and I believe it will, we will have mainly a rainstorm on our hands and not a snowstorm. The cold front will eventually move through cooling us down considerably on Thanksgiving when we could have a few flurries.

Stay tuned. Weather Watch 12 will have updates on this storm all week. Thanks for reading.

Mark

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4 Responses

  1. Still warm, but the extended starts getting a bit cooler. I see some below zero temps creeping into the Northern Plains in the next 10 days – and some single digits coming into Wisconsin.

  2. I was hoping that this would be the first snowstorm of the season. It’s looking like it’s going to be more and more rain.

  3. Great news, rain instead of snow. Of course it is only late November and the snow season is just upon us. Snow season being late November through the end of March (at least). So we will have dozens of opportunites between now and April for snow.

  4. I know there are those who want some snow, but this storm’s timing would have caused serious problems for the big holiday travel day. This is really the best scenario when looking at the overall picture.

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