Rainy November Night…Weekend Storm

It may be November, but we are looking at rain and not snow. The heaviest rain will fall this evening with a few light showers/drizzle overnight.  Cold air will wrap in tomorrow, but by that time there will be only a small amount of moisture left. Only flurries are expected. The rain this evening will be moderate to heavy. Rain totals will be between .25″ – .50″. Makes you think it would have been a nice 3-6″ snow if we would have been cold enough. Here is the radar at 7pm.

So far this fall/early winter, the low pressure centers have stayed to our west and north. This has allowed the warm air to bring us rain and not snow. That may change on Saturday. We have our first decent chance for measurable snow this season. The European model and the GFS are now coming into some agreement. This is not a huge storm, but if we have the low track just to our south we could get enough snow to shovel.

Take a look at the two models. Let’s start with the European.

The European model gives us a bulls-eye on Saturday which would mean 3″-6″ of snow. I am not saying this is going to happen. We are still a long way away from Saturday. Now, check out the GFS.

Yesterday’s computer model run of the GFS was not as bullish with the precipitation as today’s. The GFS is much closer to the European solution now. The GFS is also painting our area with accumulating snow. Here is the accumulation product.

The GFS solution would bring about 2″-4″ for us. Stay with weather watch 12 for the latest. The models will be changing as the system gets closer. Thanks for reading.

Mark

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One Response

  1. Looking at the long range, this is going to be the fourth straight December that features notably below average temperatures to start the first 7-14 days of the month.

    Whatever happened to all those early Decembers of the late 80s and early 90s when it was always in the 40s for most of the month with just a few pockets of cold weather.

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