First Winter Storm of the Season

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog!  The first ‘real’ snow of the season is near, and our confidence in the storm track and forecast snow totals continue to grow.  In this blog we’ll look at the updated snowfall forecast, and talk about a few variables in the storm.

Let’s start with talking where the storm is, and where it will track.  As of 1pm on Friday the center of low pressure was over South Dakota, and was moving to the southeast.  Below is a surface map showing the low labeled with an ‘L’.  Also, the surface observations are plotted.  The red numbers indicate air temperatures, green numbers dew point, and the little ‘*’ symbols indicate snow.  2 stars mean light snow, and 3 represent moderate snow.  On this map there was moderate snow falling in Mankato, MN.  Also of note on the map, Milwaukee was 27 degrees and cloudy.  Just click to enlarge. 

I want to mention again like I did yesterday, that the track of this low pressure system from the Dakotas southeast into the Midwest and eventually toward the Tennessee Valley is NOT a favorable storm track for heavy snow in our area.  But again, it is a good track to pick up some snow.  And that is what we are looking for Friday night and Saturday.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this time period for parts of southeast Wisconsin, including the cities of Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha, and Waukesha.  Only 2 counties in southwest Wisconsin are in the Winter Storm Warning.

We always pride ourselves in putting out the best forecast, and one that people can rely on.  Since yesterday’s blog entry I have only pulled the 1 to 2 inch snow band farther south, keeping the forecast pretty consistent.  I think with fairly light winds the lake enhanced snow will not push too far inland.  This should keep the light snow with the storm in the range of 1 to 2 inches in many areas north of I-94 between Madison and Milwaukee away from Lake Michigan. 

The general 2 to 4 inch snow band then covers the rest of southeast Wisconsin.  As of this writing I feel that most of this area will fall into the 2 to 3 inch range, with isolated totals approaching 4 inches(especially if some lake effect or enhanced snow occurs).

This is how the storm is currently looking.  For the latest updates please tune to WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm as I’m sure the 2 to 4 inch snow band may shift a little north or south.  The snow should start Friday Night and continue into Saturday morning before tapering off in the afternoon.  Roads will be slippery in spots, but if you take your time you should be able to get around. 

If you take any pictures during the storm, please post them to the U-Local section of WISN.com and also feel free to send them to jdnelson@hearst.com and also mbaden@hearst.com  We will show some viewer pictures during our WISN 12 newscasts.

Feel free to post your questions or thoughts in the comments section of the blog, remember the blog is interactive!

Enjoy the snow and be safe driving around!

Jeremy Nelson

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4 Responses

  1. Yesterday, almost all other sources had higher totals except you guys. Funny how everyone else’s snow totals now are trending towards what you said in the first place. This also happened in an even more extreme manner this past late February. What kind of advanced equipment are you guys hiding over there?

    • Daniel,

      I do use gut feeling, but tracking model trends and how they have faired over the past week or so is also used. I also looked back at this storm the last tiime through the cycle, and saw that the 500mb low was not negatively tilted and kind of slid by. All those things had me keep this one under 5 or 6 inches, and more realistically in the 2 or 3 inch range.

      Jeremy

  2. Daniel G, I think what they’re not hiding is the “gut feel” rather than “playing it safe” and following what the NWS puts out. IMO.

    For what it’s worth though, Oshkosh seems to be on the cusp of an inch. If anyone is interested in watching my backyard get less snow than the rest of you all, click on my name. 🙂

    Enjoy and keep thinking snow!

    • Being out of the market, it is hard for me to judge..but I know in watching several models and factoring in the pattern, this could not be a big producer for the MKE area. Nice little event, but nothing to write home about except it is one of the first ones in that neck of the woods for the year.

      Most of the models have trended to 2-3 inches for the last two days or so.

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