I hope you all enjoyed the first taste of snow yesterday with 3.6″ falling in Milwaukee. It was good to have the snow come on Saturday (less traffic) and that the first snow was not a whopper of a storm. The snow was the most snow to fall in our area since February 9th, 2010 when we had 8.1″.
Now, let’s talk about another active week. It starts off with very cold temperatures. Lows the next few nights will be near 10 degrees and wind chills will be below zero. Highs will only be in the low to mid 20s. Partly cloudy skies will last through Wednesday.
Thursday brings our first chance of snow this week. A weak clipper system will move through bringing light snow to our area. Here is the European and GFS models for Thursday.
As always, you can click on the image to enlarge. The two models are in pretty good agreement with the clipper. The models are in big disagreement for the weekend storm. Check out the Sunday forecast model maps.
The GFS brings a small amount of snow and only minor cyclogenesis (strengthening of a low pressure center).
The European model blows this low pressure center to a pretty major storm. Now, which model is going to be right? I am pretty confident that the midwest will get a strong storm this weekend. I do not have enough confidence right now to say that will be in SE Wisconsin. However, we will have to watch closely.
The other big question on my mind is whether this is the October 26th storm making its return visit. (I thought after a year of watching the LRC it was finally time to start chiming in.) If you don’t know what the LRC is, Jeremy has written about this for the last year in the blog. Here is the short version of what it is from the LRC website.
The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle)
- A unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between October 1st and November 10th
- “Long term” longwave troughs and ridges become established over the northern hemisphere
- The pattern cycles and repeats over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart during the mid summer months
After one year of watching this with a very sceptical eye, I am more than intrigued. I am still learning and look forward to figuring out the cycle length of this winter’s pattern. I believe this week will play an integral part of figuring that out. Take a look at this weekend’s storm.
Take a look at the 500mb chart from October 26th.
Check out the locations of the troughs and ridges and now compare to the forecast for this Saturday from the European model.
I don’t know about you, but the big upper low is pretty close to the position on 10/26. It is a little farther south which would make sense now that the jet is farther south in a winter position. Also, check the upper low near Hudson Bay. It is a bit farther east for Saturday/Sunday but in general vicinity. Furthermore, the other low feature matches quite nicely in Alaska. The ridges are also very similarly positioned. I believe that the storm this weekend is the return of the big wind storm from late October. That does not mean it will bring the same winds like we had then, but certainly could be a storm of note.
Ok, I finally dipped my feet in the LRC water. Let me know if you think I am crazy or the LRC is crazy in the comments section.