Winter Weather Advisory Today

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Good Thursday bloggers!  An active part of the weather pattern is upon us.  Expect snow to develop this afternoon and continue this evening across southern Wisconsin.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for our entire viewing area from 3pm to Midnight.

Below is the county breakdown of the advisory.

Snow totals for much of our area will fall into the 1 to 3 inch range.  There’s a chance that a few totals could near 4 inches, but that would likely be in the northern part of our viewing area.  It looks like parts of Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties that missed the snow this past weekend will finally get some snow this time!

Please allow extra time traveling later today and this evening.  The peak of the snow may fall during parts of the evening rush hour in Milwaukee, so travel times will be elevated.

After this round of snow passes, the focus will shift to a stronger storm for the weekend.  The track of the storm will be key, and as I have been discussing for the past 3+ days in the blog the track should move west, and now it has.  The question is will it line up to the west of Milwaukee?  That would bring rain, a mix, then snow.  Or will the track stay just south and bring our area mainly snow?

Based on the last time the storm moved through on October 26(the big windstorm), a track near or even west of Milwaukee is possible.  For now plan on all of the above being possible on Saturday(rain, mix, or snow).

To learn more about the weather pattern theory and how we use it for forecasting, check out the winter forecast based on the LRC.  Just click below.

http://www.wisn.com/weather/25898535/detail.html

We will continue to monitor the trends, and have a new blog update later today.  The models finally latched onto a more western track Wednesday evening, and the updated runs this morning have pushed it even a bit farther west.  Stay with Weather Watch 12 for the latest!

Jeremy Nelson

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20 Responses

  1. Thank you Jeremy for being so good about blogging. I tend to do my “reasearch” in the morning and then get on with the rest of my day. It’s wonderful when the current days blog is up in the morning. Thanks once again. 🙂

    • Sam,

      Sometimes the blog postings depend on our work schedules. I did a couple posts from home since there is a lot going on over the next few days. Look for another updates likely this evening.

      Jeremy

  2. Great work Jeremy the 1200z runs of both the NAM and GFS have the low passing right over us around midnight on Sunday, so if that track held it would be as Jeremy said, rain/mix changing over to all snow, but then northern Wisconsin would get nailed with heavy snow.

  3. Winter Storm Watch just went up to the northwest of us. Seems like the NWS is coming into the same line of thinking as Jeremy was suggesting this morning.

  4. OK. It took about 3 minutes, but I just got over the fact that we will AGAIN miss the heavy snow and look to get maybe 2-4″ total thru Saturday night. I feel like Lucy pulled the football out at the last minute. ‘Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuugggghhhh!’

    🙂

    I know, still 48 hours out, but ‘things’ are converging to it flying right over us or close to it, giving us JUST enough of a rise in temps to give mix/rain.

    😦

    Thanks for the blog though, it’s great!

    Michael R.

    • Michael,

      The 18Z NAM pushes the low even further north and west. The upper low may fall in almost the exact same spot as October 26. I’m tempted to push highs into the 40s on Saturday. If you are traveling into northern WI, or MN, looks like they will likely get the most snow. Things could change, but this only makes sense based off the last time through the cycle.

      Jeremy

  5. Noooo! 😦

    So we wanted the track to go west, for us to have all snow, and what do we get? Yes, a western track, but its too far west! 😦 I’m mad at you Mother Nature! I don’t want 40s and rain… we need a white Christmas!

    • We got plenty of time Bryan. Anyways, I’d rather have a fresh batch of snow shortly before Christmas rather than dirty looking snow that is hard as a rock which is what this upcoming’s snow would be like by then.

  6. Jeremy,

    Do you have a publicly available @wisn.com email address? I’ve tried jnelson and jdnelson@wisn.com and they both bounce. The latter I tried to send you feedback from wisn.com’s homepage.

    Thanks.

    Michael R.

  7. Its always like this…Milwaukee never ever gets hit with these big snow storms we just get all the extremely cold temperatures, for some reason those never seem to miss us! Oh well, here’s goodbye to another storm, was sooooo hoping to get tons of snow!!!

  8. So now the storm is tracking a bit north?? So now SE WI is going to get like sleet or maybe an inch of snow this weekend…….. awesome. 😦 Why do I have a feeling that the whole winter is going to be this way??!

    • Agree with Stacey. I was so excited that we were going to get pounded with a good snow storm this weekend and now my excitment is fizzling away very quickly. Hoping we may still have a white Christmas after this cruddy mix of stuff this weekend.

      • I agree with all of you. I was so happy that the storm was tracking more to the north to get a lot of snow, but now it will probably go too far north. This seems to happen everytime. WHY!!!! Im crossing my fingers that it will change, but time is running out. Highs in the 40s? That would be terrible!!!

  9. So incredibly disappointed about the weekend storm…can’t believe it!! First too far south and now too far west and north…I was really looking forward to a good snow! I think its time to move.

    • Couple of things for everyone asking about the track. First, both the southern and northern track will bring our area some snow, obviously the amounts would vary. Second, there will likely be a big difference in weather conditions across our viewing area on Saturday. Meaning one area may see a a mix, another all snow. The potential still exists for us to see the biggest snow so far this season.

      In the same breath the potential is also there for us to see fairly low snow totals if a mix or rain occurs. I wouldn’t lose hope for a snowy Saturday yet. Some models, like our in-house one keep the low to the south of Milwaukee…a snowier solution. Another, like the NAM, pulls in milder air, produces a mix, and then snow.

      Much more will be known after the 00Z runs tonight, and then again after the 12Z runs on Friday. If you love or hate snow this could swing your way. We know this is a repeat of the feature that produced the wind storm, but what final track it takes is still uncertain.

      Jeremy

      • Jeremy,

        When do you think the 00Z will be available to you to run?

        Will you be on duty overnight to post results?

        (I know, I can’t wait till tomorrow morning!)

        Thanks!

        Michael

      • Michael,

        I look at the NCEP site for most model data. It will be in by the 10pm newscast. Also another run of our high resolution model.

        Jeremy

      • Thanks for keeping the hope alive Jeremy! 🙂 Glad to hear that your model keeps it south with more snow. Hasn’t yours been more accurate the closer and closer to the event? Also, what does 00Z and 12Z mean?

      • Bryan,

        00Z means 6pm central time, and 12Z means 6am central time. The data is initialized at these times and the models then run 2-3 hours later. Our in-house model has been doing very well, we will see if that continues.

        Jeremy

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