Busy Week Ahead…2 Snow Chances/Arctic Blast

Tough to write this in the middle of the Packers game. 14-0 right now so that makes it a little easier.

A busy weather pattern for much of the rest of the month. However, this week it looks like SE Wisconsin misses being in the bulls-eye again. Sorry, snow lovers. Round one stays mainly south brining light snow on Tuesday. Round 2 on Friday and Saturday, but low pressure stays north. What is pretty certain is a very chilly air mass arriving late on Saturday and Sunday.

I am going to focus on the first round arriving early Tuesday. Don’t expect a whole lot of snow, but enough to have to

shovel. We will be on the northern edge of a weak low pressure center that moves across southern Illinois and Indiana. Here are the GFS and NAM models for noon Tuesday.

The GFS shows the heavier snow staying well to our south. Same story from NAM.

Finally, take a look at the RPM snow total by Tuesday night.

Not very impressive totals around here. The snow will be light, but it will last for quite a while. Totals may be a little higher near the lake, especially south of Milwaukee, due to lake-enhancement. Here is my snow forecast for Tuesday.

It will be another nuisance snow for us. Sorry kids, no snow days yet. Thanks for reading. Go Pack Go. 14-3 at halftime.

Mark

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19 Responses

  1. Mark,

    Any thoughts on why this Winter is such a dramatic shift from the above normal year we had last Spring/Summer/Fall? Is there no “transition” between the two swings?

    And any thoughts on how many more years/decades the blocking pattern over Greenland will continue? Seems like the whole Arctic Circle has shifted south and been replaced with mild air.

    • Hey, Dave,

      Good observation. If you look at the global temperature anomalies you can clearly see the cold pockets.

      Much is still being learned of the decadal oscillations, but knowing how the oscillations, negative or positive effect our weather is very important. Jeremy wrote about this yesterday with about the AO. As for how long this pattern will last, I don’t know.
      Thanks for the note.
      Mark

    • I wouldn’t exactly call this pattern we are in right now cold. We’re heading into the middle part of January without a day yet to fall below zero and we’ve only had one day where the high failed to reach 20 degrees. How many times can we say that happened?

      I think those back to back winters during the middle of the last decade really spoiled us into forgetting what Wisconsin winters really are like.

      • Daniel,
        Certainly not really cold, but colder than average. I think we have a good chance at below zero temps this month, starting with Sunday night.
        Mark

  2. Mark,
    What does Friday look like? Are we FOR SURE missing that storm…….AGAIN?

    • Stacey,

      Not as sure as death and taxes, but storm would have to make a big move south. Thanks.

      Mark

  3. So considering we are missing all these snow storms. It should be a very good summer,with very little rain…or will the rain all travel to the south….

    • Dave,

      Keep in mind we did not miss storm in early December, we had an inch of rain. Furthermore, the track of the low pressure centers will not be identical each time through. Stay tuned.
      Mark

  4. Hey Guys, I sure hope we start picking up snows soon, we sure have a lot of making up to do with our deficit to date. Although if we got one good snowstorm we could definately put a dent in that deficit! Still keeping my fingers crossed that we start getting some storms coming in where they need to in order for us to get a good wallop!

    • Dave,

      All it takes is one big storm and we will be all caught up. Snow deficit in Milwaukee currently at 10.7″ for the season. Still think the end of the month could bring us a big storm. Plenty of time to catch up.

      Mark

  5. Unbelievable. Further south in Kansas, we have had 3 inches of snow total this winter, yet – tomorrow we will get 5-8 inches which for us likely will provide kids a snow day on Tuesday. We likely will have our first snow day before Milwaukee.

    Scott

    • Looks like this might be your biggest of season. We don’t get many snow days here. Even with 5-8 inches.

      Mark

  6. The return of the “bomb” is showing up at ~ 384hr. I expect it to change shape a bit, but not a bad rendering so far out via the GFS.

    Jet streak anyone? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_348l.gif

    • Should be fun to watch. Are you done shovelling yet?

      Mark

    • I saw that today and was amazed. I dislike the amount of warm air it says will push north through WI, however.

  7. I just talked with my brother who lives just north of Atlanta (Smyrna). They picked up 6 inches of snow and now getting freezing rain on top of that. They all get snow days because there is no way to deal with it down there.

    • Jim,

      It has been tough going down south. They can’t handle 1″ let alone 6″.

      Mark

  8. Come down here! In Decatur,ala. we just received 8 inches of the white stuff! No cars on main street!

    • Thanks, Mike,

      Send some pics if you have any.

      Mark

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