***UPDATE AT 10:30 PM*** Snow never really materialized around here. Only an inch in Sheboygan. Dusting elsewhere.
The GFS is in. It still keeps huge low pretty far south. Stay tuned all weekend and next week. Here is the updated GFS forecast for Tuesday night. The low is centered over Tennessee. That would keep us on the very northern fringe of this, but the lake-effect snow would still be possible.
Another clipper system cruises through the area tonight. I think the National Weather Service is a little overzealous with the winter weather advisory for our northern counties. The main brunt of the snow will stay to our north over Green Bay where as much as 5″ may fall. I’m expecting Milwaukee and Waukesha will get around an inch. Sheboygan could get as much as 3″. Lesser amounts to the south. The main accumulating snow will arrive between 7pm and midnight. Here is the radar from 3:15. Not a lot of snow, but watch out for slippery conditions tonight.
Do you remember earlier this week when I was blogging about the “signature storm” and thought it was the small system hitting Wisconsin right now. Well, I was wrong. I have much more to learn about the LRC. I believe the storm next week is the return of the strong storm of October 26th and December 11th. The models are finally coming around and starting to show a powerhouse storm. The eventual track is still uncertain, but snow lovers out there should hold out hope for a big storm. Take a look at the Canadian, Euro, and GFS models for Tuesday night. I’ll start with the Canadian.
The Canadian model keeps the low across Kentucky, but this is too close for comfort. Now, the Euro.
This is a complete flip-flop from yesterday on the European model. Yesterday, it had the low staying WAY to our south. Now it puts it into southern Indiana. This would certainly bring us some snow. Finally, the GFS.
The GFS keeps the majority of the snow to our south, however, with each model run the low keeps creeping farther and farther north.
I don’t believe next week’s storm will a track like the previous storms in October and December. The colder air will keep the low far enough south that we don’t have to worry about rain this time. Another issue to think about is that even if the low stays well south of us, we will likely have 3 days in a row with Northeast winds. This may end up being a big lake-effect snow or a big lake-enhanced snow. Stay tuned.