***Watch WISN 12 News for the updated snowfall forecast!***
Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! In this entry we will look at the latest forecast track, and also check out a couple of forecast snow total maps.
The first batch of light snow continues across parts of southeastern Wisconsin. Below is a radar image at 12:30pm on Monday. I highlighted the edge of the light snow, this edge was drifting slowly north-northeast. Within the band of snow, there was a little steadier snow near I-94, but certainly not heavy snow.
For a live look at the radar just click below. This is our interactive radar that you can zoom, loop, and move around.
A winter weather advisory continues through 3pm Tuesday. Expect on and off light snow, with embedded pockets of moderate snow, from Monday evening/night into Tuesday. Most of southeastern Wisconsin will pick up about 2″-6″ during the advisory period, with the highest totals where lake effect/enhanced snow occurs.
Now the bigger question comes on the exact track for the second round of snow Tuesday Night into early Wednesday. The model runs this morning did vary.
Below is the TOTAL PRECIPITATION forecast from the 12Z NAM(North American Model). This forecast includes both rounds. This clearly puts the bullseye of the storm well to our southeast. This would put around a 0.50″ liquid in Milwaukee, which would translate into about 4″-6″ of snow!
The forecast above would also have a sharp cut-off northwest of Milwaukee. Snow totals would be highest from around Milwaukee south to Kenosha. This would represent a more southern track for the storm system.
The other model we look at is the GFS(Global Forecast System). The Monday morning run has a wetter storm, but less than what was showing up over the weekend. The map below puts about 0.75″-1.25″ liquid near Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Lesser amounts farther north and west. This would translate to about 8″-14″ of snow in the high bands, less elsewhere.
The GFS would represent a more northern track. One final model that we like to look at…and one that has been all over the board in the past 2 days, is the RPM. This is a higher resolution computer model. Below is the snowfall forecast it thinks will happen between now and Wednesday at 6pm.
Now that the surface low is forming over Texas, we will be able to track its progress and strength versus what the models are saying. We can also use radar data. All of these things will go into the forecast we put on WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm. The main round of snow is expected Tuesday Night into early Wednesday for the Milwaukee area. The snow will be accompanied by gusty winds of 20-40mph.
The question is how much snow?
Right now we are looking at the maximum snow totals coming in around 15 inches, likely somewhere in Racine or Kenosha counties, and then low end totals of around 4 to 6 inches in parts of Dodge and Fond du Lac counties. Again these totals may change as the storm evolves, but that is where things stand right now.
If you have questions or thoughts about the snow, just post them to the comments section!