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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! After enduring a cold month and a half of weather in southeastern Wisconsin, with NO temperatures warmer than 35 degrees, a much needed(and expected) warm-up is near! The warm-up that we will experience this week is directly tied to the warm-up that closed 2010.
If you follow the blog, you know we use a weather pattern theory called the LRC to make accurate long range forecasts weeks and even months in advance. Here is what the LRC states.
The ‘LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:
- A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
- The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
- Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
- The LRC is a winter-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.
As I have mentioned many times, this year’s cycle duration is about 46-52 days. Overall most of the weather events have repeated about 47-50 days apart.
With the cycle duration in mind, and looking back to late December, the warm-up that arrives this week is right on schedule!
From December 29 to January 1, Milwaukee recorded the warmest temperatures(by far) this winter season. Below are the highs at Milwaukee’s Mitchell Airport. Keep in mind the average high in this timeframe is 29 degrees.
- December 29 40
- December 30 49
- December 31 54
- January 1 45
If you remember, this was the 2nd time the cycle had repeated this season, so the ‘warm’ part of the pattern can be traced back into November too! During this timeframe the average high in Milwaukee was 48 degrees.
Now let’s fast forward from the December warm-up around 48-50 days, and you land on this week! And again, another big warm-up is set to arrive. This time we will be fighting a deep snowpack, something we lacked in both November and late December, but I’m still expecting temperatures well above average!
After a seasonal start to the week with mid-30s for highs, the warmest weather of the month will arrive late in the week. By Thursday, highs should jump into the mid-40s in our area. Below is a temperature forecast map from the GFS computer model. This is valid at 6pm Thursday.
The wild card to the warm-up for our part of the country will be how much in the way of low clouds, drizzle, and fog will we contend with. If we can combine some sunshine with the warm air in place, I think highs close to 50 would be possible.
Either way, it will be nice to finally shed the heavy winter coats and maybe begin to see the edge of the lawn again!
Just think when the warm-up arrives the second week of April…70s may be possible!
Have a great day and please post any questions or thoughts to the comments section of the blog!