Winter Storm Warning

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the winter storm!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  A messy winter storm is taking aim at the region for Sunday and Sunday Night.  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, a mix, and snow are all likely across southeast Wisconsin.

Winter Storm Warnings are in place from 6am Sunday to 6pm Monday.  I think the greatest timeframe to be concerned about would be 6am Sunday to 6am Monday.  Below is the warning map with the Winter Storm Warnings in white.  A flood advisory is in place for Racine and Kenosha counties, that is why they appear green, but both counties are also in the Winter Storm Warning.

Winter Storm Warning

 

I will post a snowfall forecast map in the blog later.  But this is a very tricky storm and a shift of just 20-40 miles will make a huge difference in snow totals for our area.  I do think some locations will see 10-12″+ of snow, while others may only see 2-3″!

Make sure to watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest on this winter storm!

Jeremy Nelson

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27 Responses

  1. I’m getting excited again as usual! Good luck with the forecasting 😀

  2. Before i was thinking more rain with this system because the models had this too north, but now they’re coming into agreement that it’s going to go more south. Hopefully that trend continues and all areas in southern wi see a lot of snow.

  3. Hi Jeremy,

    Think I should put out my rain gauge (plastic) to try and come up with a liquid precip. number?

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  4. Just wondering why there going all the way till 6 pm Mon for Winter Storm Warning, more snow on Monday?

    • Mark,

      I was a little surprised the watch went until 6pm too. Monday will be windy with snow showers…but most of the accumulating snow should be done by noon. Guessing when the storm track is a little clearer the end time will be adjusted.

      Jeremy

  5. I think the RPM model that was shown yesterday will bear out so about 7 inches for Milwaukee, the NWS seems in general agreement with the 12+ totals to our north.

  6. Thanks for the update Jeremy. I feel like this storm came out of nowhere, but it is very welcomed following our thaw. I am looking forward to seeing how much snow this storm will bring the Milwaukee area.

    • Scott,

      We’ve seen this storm before around November 13 and December 31-Jan 1.

      Jeremy

  7. This looks like a storm that is going to be nobody’s friend. Whether you love snow or hate snow, it won’t matter because the ice will be the big story.

    12z ECMWF has the 850 freezing line as far north as Manitowoc by 6am tomorrow. Given the below freezing surface thermal profile at that hour, we would be in for a world of problems if that verifies.

  8. Hi, Jeremy!

    What is your take on what’s going to be going on here in Dodge County with this storm — and timeline for same? [Am especially needing to know the 6 a.m. to Noon time frame.} When will things become “firm” as far as storm details?

    As always, depening on your guidance to help me make important decisions! {Friends who follow “other weather-related sites” are even calling me to see what the WW12 team is saying ‘cuz they’ve learned to trust the info I relay from you. You get the credit of course!}

    Thanks for any and all help you give us throughout whatever’s coming up — er, I mean down … 🙂

    Don in Reeseville

    • Don,

      You are in a more ‘northern’ area, so you could see a quick burst of snow, and then a mix or freezing rain. The RPM keeps your area in a mix or freezing rain for much of Sunday. That may mean ice accumulation of greater than 0.10″. A lot will depend on where the heaviest precipitation band sets up…and how far north the above freezing temperatures can push.

      In my opinion the RPM is catching on to what I think should happen based off the past 2 times in the cycle. The RPM is keeping the heaviest band of snow from central MN into central WI. We would see a majority of our precipitation as freezing rain, sleet, rain and a mix. Still there would be a period of accumulating snow, but the heaviest should stay north.

      This storm will cause problems in our area, but just a difference of 1-3 degrees in our area will could mean the difference between all rain, freezing rain, or snow!

      Jeremy

      • Thanks for the info, Jeremy. Not what I wanted to hear, however. Rain and mix and ice have never proven a good thing. Still hoping for all snow. I’d rather have 10 inches of snow than even a fraction of an inch of ice.

        I’ll keep following your updates. Hopefully the story will change and the low will shift further south.

        I too will be interested in seeing how this is part of the LRC. I only remember the melting from the New Year’s holidays — not any kind of storm so soon thereafter.

        Don

  9. Hey Jeremy!

    I found that image that Mark uploaded from the January 1st storm to be very interesting in how it compares to the GFS forecast of this system. If you compare the two images, they look very similar, right? The only thing I believe the GFS image is missing is a huge amount of gulf moisture. But doesn’t it look like it’ll be filling in a bit and look exactly like the January 1st storm (51 days ago tomorrow)? Interested in your thoughts!


    Dan

  10. What do you think about northern Waukesha?

    Will it be snow in the morning, ice in the afternoon, and then back to snow? Three layers!

    • Latest RPM is even farther north. Guessing the NAM and GFS will follow suit and move the low a little farther north.

      Jeremy

      • With the low shifting further north does this mean we’re looking at higher rain totals vs. snow?

      • 18Z GFS is about the same position as 12Z. The RPM did very well with the blizzard and other big weather events this season. It is a high resolution model, and I will blend it with about one other model. So my totals may be lower than most.

        Jeremy

  11. I don’t understand how this can be the part of the cycle you are suggesting. Everything matches up perfectly between December 31 and last Thursday. The 50s surge, the LP passing well to our NW, the blizzard warning in parts of North Dakota. This storm has a completely different look to it.

    • Daniel,

      I’m confident this is the Dec 31 – Jan 1 storm. I’ll show examples later, just trying to get everything pinned down for the early shows.

      Jeremy

    • Daniel,

      The blizzard warnings are back in the Dakotas.

      Jeremy

  12. I feel that many people have gotten spring fever this week, so this should cure that right away. Also, with all the coverage in Madison, stations haven’t been able to hype this as usual, so I have a feeling many will be surprised come tomorrow!

  13. I swear the NWS isn’t reading the models correctly. They need to be putting more emphasis on the ice potential instead of inflating the snow totals.

    • Daniel,

      I thought there totals were a little high, but with the low dew points now, the precip may produce evaporational cooling and start as snow. The key is how much snow falls with the first push of precip. If we get more than 1″ in Milwaukee right away, I may be worried my snow totals would be too low. Otherwise I think there should be concern for ice build-up. The heaviest precip. may miss our area which is good news…but even a .10 to .25″ of ice is bad news for travel.

      Jeremy

      • Either way, I appreciate that you come up with your own forecast instead of copying and pasting it from the NWS like one of the other stations that I won’t mention by name.

      • @Daniel G: Well said there, brother! I can think of a station that does that every single storm!!

      • I’m going to work on a new blog post soon. I may include a piece of the 00Z stuff. Look for that this evening.

        Jeremy

      • Looks like about 4 inches of snow and upwards of .5 inches of QPF available for sleet/freezing rain for the MKE area. It is a very tricky storm..but looks like the majority of the snow stays to the north. Just my thoughts right now…

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