Next Storm Staying South

I hope everyone is done digging out from the last few days worth of snow. Anywhere from 1″ in the south to 15″ in Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties.  Last night’s forecast of 1″-3″ was good except for Ozaukee and Northern Milwaukee county. As much as 6″ of snow fell where a persistent lake-enhanced band of snow developed and lasted for much of the overnight hours.

Now, on to the next r0und. We will likely get a little light snow or drizzle late on Wednesday and Wednesday evening, but this should not amount to much of anything. The main show the rest of the week is a stronger low pressure center I mentioned yesterday in the blog. This low will move across the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley on Thursday night and Friday. As I anticipated, with the help of the LRC, the storm looks like it will stay to our south. Almost all the computer models have it staying well south of us. The exception is the Euro, but it is only brushing our southern counties. Take a look:

Here is the NAM:

Here is the GFS:

And finally, the RPM:

The thing to note with all of the models above is a substantial move to the south with the low over the last 24 hours. I feel confident that the low will stay to our south.

Thanks for reading an abbreviated blog. I’ve got to go lead a tour of Cub Scouts around the building.

Mark

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22 Responses

  1. Hey Mark,

    Great call you had last night when you said you thought the Thursday system would go south…. looks like you’re right, and it’s been interesting to see the models come into a bit of an agreement today, with the NAM also taking it south now.

    Any thoughts on the storm system for early next week? I suppose it’s a bit far out to talk about, huh? Looks like it will follow the same route as this system though, if things stay the same. Although they rarely do haha 😀

    Have a great night!
    Dan

    • Dan,

      Not a great call until it goes by. I’m always nervous until I’m certain, but thank you.

      I’ve been trying to find the previous editions of this pattern. If it is what I think it is, we could be getting a fair amount of rain/snow. This may match up with 1/17 and 11/22. Take a look.
      Mark

      • Thanks, Mark! You have a stressful job! 🙂

        Much respect.

      • I assume you mean 1/7 and not 1/17.

      • Does the NWS save previous models or radar images from past storms? How can I see the 1/7 system?

      • Daniel G.,

        I think I got ahead of myself. Actually it may match more with 1/10 and 1/11.

        Mark

      • Dan K,

        Greatest job in the world!!! Would not trade it for anything…we’ll maybe Aaron Rodgers.

        Mark

      • Dan K,

        Use this link:

        http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index.html

        Mark

      • Dan,

        Have you seen the latest runs. Never count your chickens…

        Mark

      • Sure did, Mark! I’m the Danny King who wrote on your Facebook wall… 🙂 Now I know exactly what you mean by chicken counting…. you do have a stressful but awesome job! 😀

  2. Thanks so much, Mark! I’ve added that tool to my favorites… that makes things so much easier 🙂

    So we’re looking for somewhere close to January 8th, right? I think that’s 51 days before this coming Monday. Perhaps it is the 11th low then, eh? That looks the closest and resembles the low that the models are predicting for early next week?… correct me if I’m wrong!

    Dan

    • Dan, I’m struggling with Monday’s possible storm. Jan 7,8 and November 17, 18 is about right. I’m trying to not look at the surface maps. That will give you a big headache. Look at the 500mb level.

      Mark

  3. Mark, I understand your struggles…. I can’t even compare Jan 7-8 and Nov 17-18…. this is tricky stuff! Please let me know if you figure anything out! Good luck

  4. Do you also see a potential for a major storm on early next week?

  5. Hi, Mark!

    i, too, am greatly “in the need to know” about any storm potential for early next week, especially Monday. If this is the same type of system as passed through in the cycle on the dates you’ve mentioned above, please remind me as to what we got as far as precip? And when do you think you’ll have a more firm idea as to what we’ll get this time through?

    Thanks!

    Don in Reeseville

  6. Don and Chris,

    One of the models looks like it’s bringing Sunday night/Monday’s storm rather far north with some heavy precipitation (1″ in spots which is a lot)… but the other models look like they’re taking it south as usual. Not sure how this matches up with the LRC. Mark and Jeremy, correct me if I’m reading this wrong.

    Dan

  7. Actually it looks like the GFS is taking it very far north, eh? With the rain snow line quite far west?
    http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/_slp_gfs_06z.htm

    • Give it time. About the only track the low won’t take is where it is now because it always changes one way or the other at least a little.

      • Daniel,

        Good point…I don’t think I’ve ever seen a model latch on to a solution and then stick with it.

        Jeremy

  8. I am getting better at reading these models but still have trouble understanding them all and how to choose which is more reliable. I guess my question is, right now, what is model with most reliability and what is the worst.

    And tell me if I am wrong, but from what I gather from these models you all keep leading me to, we could get from 3 inches to one that says 12 inches. Because the 1 inch moisture means 1 foot of snow?

    Thanks for helping, I am trying here.

    • 12:1 isn’t always accurate… it depends on temperatures too. Jeremy, is this ratios chart accurate? I suppose you also have to take into account the temp near the surface too, etc

      http://www.cbs3springfield.com/weather/classroom/weathercharts/6550997.html

    • Craig,

      Generally 1″ of liquid equals about 10-12″ of snow. But that will vary based on temperatures. This past weekend which was very wet snow may have been 1″ of liquid and 8″ of snow.

      Model performance varies, but right now I feel the GFS is doing well. It kept the Friday system south from the start, which it looks like it will stay south for the most part. But really the models all have strengths and weaknesses.

      Jeremy

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