Storm #1 Misses, Storm #2 Bulls-Eye

It is certainly close, but it looks as though the storm that is hitting just to our south will stay there. Kenosha county is under a winter weather advisory, but I don’t think that is warranted. Light snow is possible right along the border, but I only expect about an inch of snow there. Only flurries in Waukesha and Milwaukee. Here is the RPM computer model at midnight tonight.

The heavy snow will stay across Northern Missouri, North-Central Illinois, and Northern Indiana. They could pick up 6-8″ tonight. This is the first big storm to miss us in quite a while.

The next storm does not look like it will miss us. Sunday night will bring a rapidly strengthening low pressure center, but at this point is looks wet and not white. There could be a substantial amount of rain, possibly over an inch, that could create some flooding problems. It will become very windy on Sunday and Monday. Here is the GFS model for midnight on Sunday night.

Note the blue zero degree line. This is very important along with the 540 line on the 500 mb chart. This is often the dividing line between rain and snow. Here is the 500mb chart from the GFS model for Sunday night.

Both the zero line and the 540 lines are well north of SE Wisconsin. If the low stays on this path we are looking at mainly a rain event. As the low passes by on Monday morning cold air will wrap in on strong westerly winds changing the rain to snow, but because this will be the back side of the low there will be less moisture. Only minor accumulations are expected at this point. The storm is still four days away so a lot can happen to the track. Obviously, if it moves south that could put us in a path for more snow. Stay tuned.

Mark

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19 Responses

  1. Thanks, Mark. Wow, tonight’s storm to the south sure fooled me! I really thought we’d see something out of it….

    • Dan,

      Tonight’s storm was a fun one to watch on the models…north, south, north, south. LRC wins.

      • Sure was… and your original thoughts will likely win out….. but i suppose, again, that i should wait for the storm to pass before i say that 🙂

    • We are still in the “counting the chickens” phase.

  2. I’m hoping for snow next week. I’m craving a big one after the last one was a flop for the southern counties.

    • Chris,

      Plenty of time left this winter.

      Mark

  3. Sunday’s 500mb certainly has an angry vorticity…makes me want to think about chasing…

    • Scott,

      Are you chasing the snowflakes tonight?

      Chasing season is about here. Sunday may be your first shot.

      Mark

      • Yeah…we are in a commahead after 8 hrs of sleet and freezing rain. Fortunately, temps stayed about 30 degrees or we would have had a bad ice storm. Still have some sagging trees and some power outages…but not bad.

        I know many who wanted to chase the Tennessee Valley tonight, but 70mph storm velocities, hilly terrain, and darkness doesn’t sound fun to me. Sunday might be better, but probably still too far to drive for my liking and instability is still a bit marginal. I prefer slow moving supercells in open places, but so do 20,000 other people. LOL

      • I’m sure there are idiots out chasing in the dark in Tennessee.

      • LOL 🙂

  4. Thursday, February 24, 2011 7:57 pm

    Hi Mark,

    I noticed a few blog’s ago you mentioned you were working (planning) on a blog post that would be discussing the various computer forecast models. Are you at liberty to mention which, if any, of the frequently mentioned models in this blog is the one used by the ‘Futurecast’ function of the Irad? Just wondering. Please feel free to take a ‘pass’ if you feel it best ‘we don’t want to go there’.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    p.s. Still planning on sending you some ‘blizzard’ pictures via ‘snail mail’. Due to having to work around the weather of late, it’s taking a bit longer than intended!

    • Tony,

      Interactive radar is based on Weather Central’s model called futurecast or microcast. It is another model to look at, but in my opinion, not as accurate as RPM.

      Mark

  5. Mark,

    Thanks for the info. I was more curious than anything.

    Regards,
    Tony

  6. Am counting down the days till spring, sick of the lack of sun , winter get’s long around here..

    • Bryan…I was ready for Spring a month ago.

      Jeremy

      • I suppose I’m only sick of winter when we don’t have any big storms and it’s just cold out haha 😀

  7. Great job on nailing the forecast here in New Berlin. The other guys including the NWS didn’t seem to have a proper handle on this storm.

    • Thanks, Daniel. I’ll get a new blog out tonight.

      Mark

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