***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***
***Look for the long range March forecast in the blog Sunday evening!***
Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! The weekend started snowy, and has the potential to end with more precipitation Sunday and Sunday night.
Before we tackle Sunday, let’s discuss the round of snow that moved through on Saturday. About 1″-3″ of snow fell in areas from Madison east to Milwaukee and points north. A few spots saw around 4″! South of this line there was generally closer to an inch…or even less.
Please post your snow totals in the comments section of the blog.
Below is a forecast map from our in-house computer model the RPM at 3am Sunday. This shows the light snow tapering to flurries.
Remember to track rain, sleet, or snow day or night right down to where you live, just click on our interactive radar!
As one system moves out, the next one arrives on Sunday. Milder temperatures will try to push north, and this will likely mean some flurries or patchy light snow early Sunday, will transition to a light mix by later afternoon. Even a chance of a period of all rain/drizzle. The best chance of a period of rain would be closer to the Wisconsin/Illinois border.
This storm system will put southeast Wisconsin on the edge, and make for a tricky forecast late Sunday and Sunday Night. We are always analyzing the latest data in our weather center, as new information comes in about every 3 to 6 hours. So as of this writing here is the big question for late Sunday.
The question is how far north will the main area of precipitation move, and will it be cold enough for snow?
The 18Z NAM(North American Model) forecast has temperatures warm enough that it would keep precipitation as very light rain/drizzle at midnight. A littler steadier rain may be located near the Wisconsin/Illinois border.
Another model that we use to forecast has the steadier precipitation farther north, and colder temperatures in place. Below is the 18Z GFS(Global Forecast System) forecast for 12am Monday. A huge key to the map is the solid blue line over far southeast Wisconsin. This line is the 850mb temperature. And this particular line represents the 0 degrees celcius line, or the freezing line 1500 meters above the ground.
Often times this can be used as the rain/snow line. If this model plays out snow would be possible Sunday Night from Milwaukee back to Janesville, and it may be enough to accumulate!
There is a huge difference between these two models…and not much time before Sunday Night arrives! The track of the surface low will be a key to this forecast, and right now I’m forecasting some light snow/flurries Sunday morning with a change to a mix in the afternoon(possibly some light rain, best chance near the border), and then a change back to a period of snow Sunday Night.
I think the first computer model map that I showed is too warm, simply based on how far south the cold air dropped on Saturday, and neither model above picking up on that trend. So a slightly colder solution is where I will lean for Sunday!
On a side note lots of exciting things coming up. First, I will post the long range March forecast in Sunday evening’s blog. This was delayed a bit because I have been working on a special story that will air Monday during the 10pm News! It is called ‘Trading on the Weather’ I recently visited the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group where Weather Futures and Options are now being traded! A unique story that will have you asking…is this gambling on the weather?
Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the weekend forecast! Make sure to post your thoughts or questions to the comments section of the blog!