Storm Slides By – Close Call Tonight

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the storm track!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  The storm system that we have been tracking over the past several days will slide by to our southeast tonight.

Just click on the interactive radar link below for a current look at the radar.

www.wisn.com/irad

The big question is how much, if any, precipitation will fall.  Then the next question, in what form?  Let’s start with the latest data from Sunday afternoon.

Let’s start with our in-house model the RPM.  This forecast shows that all of the precipitation stays south of Wisconsin.  Keep in mind this is only one model that we look at. 

RPM Total Precipitation Tonight

The 18Z NAM model is also forecasting a southward trend for the precipitation.  This would at least graze far southeast Wisconsin with a mix or some light snow.  In this scenario areas near the WI/IL border could see a dusting to maybe 1″ of snow. 

NAM Total Precipitation Tonight

The last solution to look at below, is the 18Z GFS total precipitation.  This has the moisture farther north, meaning 1 to 3 inches of snow would be possible closer to the WI/IL border.  The GFS would also put more wintry mix/snow in the Milwaukee area.

GFS Total Precipitation Tonight

Since it wouldn’t take more than just a slight shift to the north for our area to be in the slightly heavier precipitation, we will be nowcasting and tracking any slight shift in the track on WISN 12 News.

I still think here in Milwaukee we could see a light mix for a time, but most of what occurs that accumulates will stay closer to the WI/IL border. 

Look for the long range March forecast in the blog later this evening!

Jeremy Nelson

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9 Responses

  1. So we don’t have any chances for thundersnow now?

    • Chris,

      Never say never, the GFS is still farther north. But the best chance for thunder to occur is near the WI/IL border.

      Jeremy

      • Is the general rule that the GFS gets less accurate as it is closer to the actual “event?” I think somebody posted that in a blog here a couple weeks ago.

  2. the 06z nam and gfs are still taking this pretty far north

    • Those are old though. The more recent 12z and 18z models went south.

      • My apologies! I just realized I was looking at the wrong ones before you said that! Sorry..

      • Maybe Jeremy’s March outlook that is getting posted later tonight will bring snow lovers some better news.

      • You are thinking along the right lines Daniel.

        Jeremy

      • YAY! Sure hope so 😀 Not JUST at the end of March? I am wondering though if that storm will be rain or snow 😀

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