More Rain/Snow As Weekend Nears

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  After a quiet start to March, the weather pattern is about to get much more active.  Several chances of rain and snow are likely over the next 2-3 weeks.

The active pattern does not come as a surprise as we discussed this about a week ago when the long range March forecast was posted here in the blog.  If you missed the March forecast based on the LRC, just click below…

https://weatherwatch12.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/march-forecast-based-on-lezaks-recurring-cycle/

In that forecast we talked about a system that would impact southeast Wisconsin as we neared this weekend, with at least a chance of accumulating snow.  That chance still exists, but not before periods of rain showers sweep by Friday.

With the average high now near 40 in Milwaukee, this time of year can bring all precipitation types to the upper Midwest, including rain.  On Friday, scattered rain showers are a good bet from morning into the afternoon.  Temperatures will be somewhat tricky with a southeast wind blowing cold air above the frigid Lake Michigan waters over the lakeshore counties.

This is why I expect the warmest temperatures inland, in the 40s, with readings possible jumping into the low 40s near the lake late when winds briefly turn southwest or west.

Below is the RPM temperature forecast for 3pm Friday.  Notice the upper 30s around Milwaukee.

RPM Temperature Forecast Friday

Certainly warm enough to support a cold rain if precipitation is falling at this time.  Several hours later the surface low will push close to the area.  Below is the forecast surface map at 6pm Friday, this is from the HPC.

Forecast Surface Map Friday

This has the potential to be a somewhat wet storm for our area when the rain and any melted down snow is taken into account.  Below is the RPM total precipitation forecast through Saturday.  This would put 0.50″-0.75″ in far southeast Wisconsin.  Any shift north or south and this would make a huge difference in the forecast.

RPM Forecast Precipitation

The biggest question from this storm is when the moisture turns to snow, and how much.  I think this would occur late Friday night, closer to Saturday morning in Milwaukee.  Then snow showers would be possible into Saturday.  Potentially an inch or two of snow may accumulate, this will be another close call, so look for updates on WISN 12 News and here in the blog! 

This part of the pattern matches very closely with November 24-26 with precipitation and then a push of cold air. 

If you have any questions or thoughts please post them to the comments section of the blog!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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21 Responses

  1. It’s finally March.. the signature storm grows closer 😀

    • Dan,

      I’m ready! Really anytime from 20-24 it could be game on!

      Jeremy

      • Definitely! 😀 Do you think there’s really much of a chance at all for snow? Or is it pretty much anyone’s guess? Because I know there has been snow before at the end of March and well past that!

      • Climatology says it should be at least some rain. And I think something like rain, mix, then snow is how it could go. Guessing there should be a fairly large severe wx outbreak in the warm sector.

        Jeremy

      • I am a bit giggly about the warm sector…. 😉

  2. So what does next weeks storm really look like ???

    • Rich,

      I think next week’s storm would be a mix/rain, to rain, then some snow. That low I am fairly confident would stay a little farther west of our area. Probably a big snow maker for parts of MN and northern WI.

      Jeremy

  3. Hi Jeremy,

    Put my rain gauge out at 9am. I’ll see about posting some values around 5 & 9pm depending on what happens weather wise, and also my schedule.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Thanks Tony! MKE only had .12″ so far. The next round is moving in now. This may look a little like last Sunday Night if you remember back.

      Jeremy

      • Hi Jeremy,

        Oh yes, I remember last Sunday night quite well! Checked the Irad just a few minutes ago and it looks like there’s a good chance I’ll have a measurable rain
        amount to pass on to you around 5:30 pm or so. We’ll see!

        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

      • Sounds good Tony!

  4. Jeremy/Mark…1st time poster, great site. Need your expert advice, so here goes. How does the weather look for Elkhart Lake between March 10-19. Any major snowstorms, much colder than normal, ect. We currently have a 5-7″ very hard packed base on the ski trails at Greenbush, with just a few thin spots and our ski club is hoping that we can ski at least until March 20th. Our base holds very well due to the microclimate and deep forested terrain in the northern KM, as long as its doesn’t get too warm and sunny. Next Wednesday doesn’t look great, but if we can keep away from the high 40’s/50’s and get maybe 1 more 6″ snowfall with below normal temps during this period, we might be able to ski deep into late March. Appreciated any comments. Thanks, Matt

    • Matt,

      Thanks for participating in the blog! Overall this has been a great season for skiing with the colder temps and above average snow. Things really picked up once we hit 2011. I think you’ll have no problem getting to March 20. Whenever you look at the Milwaukee forecast you need to trim a couple of degrees off since you are farther north. And next week’s storm does have the potential to be wet. With that said, we may be close to the rain/snow line somewhere in central/southern WI. Decent chance on the front or back end of the storm you will see accumulating snow. So my gut says you will ski to at least March 20…possibly beyond. Any warm-ups this month would be for a day or two.

      We are also looking for the ‘signature’ storm of this year’s pattern to arrive around March 20-24 in the Midwest.

      The big warm-up should arrive around April 7-11.

      Feel free to post questions at anytime!

      Jeremy

  5. Just heard thunder!!! My spring fever has officially hit hard now! Can’t wait for our first big thunderstorm!

    • Nicole,

      I heard thunder in the blizzard the night of Feb 1. That really gave me Spring fever!

      Jeremy

  6. Hi Jeremy,

    Rainfall update:
    Just as a reminder, the rainfall amount I’m posting is from measurement begun at 9am. I ‘missed out’ on the early morning rainfall. Also, this measurement is from a typical garden variety tapered cylinder gauge. Works for me!
    As of 5:25pm, 0.35″ of rain. Current conditions, steady rain & no wind.

    Some additional info: Heard one instance of thunder at 3:45pm and another at 4:15pm. Nothing as of late.
    Will try to post update around 9:30pm. Irad looks like I might be getting some more!

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  7. Hey there, Jeremy!

    Thought you might like an update from a “northern county” — as in Reeseville in Dodge. We had some very light rain this a.m. from about 7 to 9. I don’t have a rain guage out yet — but I’m guessing a small fraction of an inch. Nothing after that — through this moment in time — about 7:45 p.m. We even had some sunshine peek through a few times this afternoon. I just looked outside and it appears to be getting foggy. The pavement has been wet all day, but that’s from melting snow.

    Will keep in touch! Would you like me to post another update tomorrow?

    Don

    • Don,

      Thanks for the report. You may get brushed by the mix/snow tonight.

      Jeremy

  8. Tony & Don,

    I sense a bit of passion from the both of you in regards to observing the weather and precipitation. I would like to recommend a precipitation observation COOP organization called CoCoRaHS the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network. http://www.cocorahs.org/ From what I’ve read the past couple of months here in the comments section I think both of you could be an asset to the community. What is coincidental is that it’s their March Madness drive this month focused on recruitment of new volunteers. If you’re not already familiar please check out the site by clicking the link above and give some thought to becoming a volunteer.

    • Hi Josh!

      Thanks for the suggestion. I’ve copied your post and stored it. Perhaps will be looking into it. I don’t know if I’d be able to keep a regular schedule of timely reports. That’s one of the nice things about posting to this blog; if I’ve got the time to do so, I just pass on whatever I have whenever I have it.

      Looking forward to having further exchanges with you,

      Cordially,
      Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  9. Hi Jeremy,

    Rainfall update: Total from 9am to 9:25pm is 0.70″
    Present conditions: Steady moderate rain, slightly foggy, no wind.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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