Wet, Not So White, Tuesday Night

Don’t turn away. You are in the right place. This is the Weather Watch 12 blog. I thought I would start the blog with something a little lighter tonight. The picture is of my youngest daughter and I at the Magic House in St. Louis. The have an electrostatic machine that works amazingly well. It is an awesome children’s museum. If you ever have a chance to check it out, you will not regret it. I just got back from 4 days in St. Louis visiting my parents and had the enjoyment of 65 degree temperatures, strong thunderstorms, heavy rain, and a few snowflakes. Not to mention my first opportunity to golf in four months. Three birdies in 18 holes. Not bad for not playing in a while.

Clearly, I digress. Let’s get to what is heading our way Tuesday night. A few flurries tonight will not add up to anything, but  a much stronger storm arrives tomorrow night. Most of the computer models are in good agreement. They agree that most of the precipitation will fall as rain and not snow. Let’s run down the models where they stand right now. When I first looked at the RPM run from this morning I was nervous. It had most of SE Wisconsin getting mainly snow. That did not mesh with the other models and now it has come back in line with the GFS, NAM, and Euro. There are a few differences. Especially the amount of moisture. The GFS is the most bullish.

The above image is from the 18z run and shows the 540 line well north of our area. That is usually a dividing line between the rain and snow. The GFS spits out over one inch of precipitation from this storm by Wednesday night. That could create some flooding issues if we get that much rain.

The Euro does not have quite as much moisture, but still puts the 540 line well north of us.

The NAM has the least amount of moisture with only around .50″.

Finally, the RPM. This now has the area mainly in rain throughout the event.

I think there is a good chance our northern counties start as snow, possibly even a quick burst of 1-3″, but then transitions to rain. The warm air advection will be quite strong as the low looks to track just south of Milwaukee. This would keep most of the accumulating snow from La Crosse to Tomah To Stevens Point, Wausau, and Crivitz. Those areas could pick up as much as 8 inches of snow. One other thing I wanted to throw in for good measure tonight. Jeremy hinted at this last night. The return of the signature storm. This is just starting to show up on the long-range GFS. Here is a tease at what could be ahead. Keep in mind this is a long way away, but it would certainly match nicely in the LRC.

Pretty amazing. Have a great night.

Mark

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14 Responses

  1. Magic House is pretty wild. Our family stopped by there this last Fall. The Science Center was cool as well.

    Signature storm could be interesting…

    Scott

    • Scott,

      It has been each time before. I’m looking forward to it. Sort of.

      Mark

      • Its not a matter of looking or not looking forward to it, really…until someone can figure out how to change weather, all that can be done is forecasting it…which done so far in advance is sorta sick in it’s own right. LOL

      • In my 20 years in this business, I have never seen a more impressive tool than the LRC. I thank you and Jeremy for the introduction.

        Mark

  2. Her hair looks just like mine when I wake up in the morning! (Haven’t had a haircut in over 3 months 😉

  3. Can the LRC guy’s explain why the pattern starts in the fall and not now or in the summer?

    • Oh and on a side note, atleast that GFS model for the signature storm looks like all rain. Yup, snowed out for the year. Bring on the golf like Mark just got to do.

      • Craig,

        Way too early to give that kind of forecast for March 23rd. A big storm yes…rain or snow, give it some time.

        Mark

    • Scott can certainly chime in, but the jet stream weakens dramatically in the summer. As autumn begins, the jet ramps up again. This is when your long-wave pattern in re-established. There is much more to it than this with possibly a tie-in to the monsoon season in India and watching the various oscillations. That is the true Reader’s Digest version.

      Mark

    • Craig – the short answer is no. Nothing at this point can definitively be explained. What we do know is what we have observed over the years. Mark is right in that we expect the weakening and retreat of the jet has a significant role in the pattern ending each year. We expect there are other factors in play as well, and ongoing research is looking at this along with other factors regarding the genesis, morphing, and “rebirth” of the LRC each year.

      • Thanks, Scott.

  4. At least her hair isn’t curly like mine… otherwise it’d look something like that on a daily basis. ^.^

  5. Hey Mark, thanks for the great post. Definitely looking forward to the signature storm! I’m sure it will change, but your long range GFS model looks exactly like the blizzard, right? Should be awesome no matter what it brings. Have a great night.

    Dan

    • Dan,

      Whether it is rain, snow, or both, it will bring plenty of wind.

      Mark

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