Don’t turn away. You are in the right place. This is the Weather Watch 12 blog. I thought I would start the blog with something a little lighter tonight. The picture is of my youngest daughter and I at the Magic House in St. Louis. The have an electrostatic machine that works amazingly well. It is an awesome children’s museum. If you ever have a chance to check it out, you will not regret it. I just got back from 4 days in St. Louis visiting my parents and had the enjoyment of 65 degree temperatures, strong thunderstorms, heavy rain, and a few snowflakes. Not to mention my first opportunity to golf in four months. Three birdies in 18 holes. Not bad for not playing in a while.
Clearly, I digress. Let’s get to what is heading our way Tuesday night. A few flurries tonight will not add up to anything, but a much stronger storm arrives tomorrow night. Most of the computer models are in good agreement. They agree that most of the precipitation will fall as rain and not snow. Let’s run down the models where they stand right now. When I first looked at the RPM run from this morning I was nervous. It had most of SE Wisconsin getting mainly snow. That did not mesh with the other models and now it has come back in line with the GFS, NAM, and Euro. There are a few differences. Especially the amount of moisture. The GFS is the most bullish.
The above image is from the 18z run and shows the 540 line well north of our area. That is usually a dividing line between the rain and snow. The GFS spits out over one inch of precipitation from this storm by Wednesday night. That could create some flooding issues if we get that much rain.
The Euro does not have quite as much moisture, but still puts the 540 line well north of us.
The NAM has the least amount of moisture with only around .50″.
Finally, the RPM. This now has the area mainly in rain throughout the event.
I think there is a good chance our northern counties start as snow, possibly even a quick burst of 1-3″, but then transitions to rain. The warm air advection will be quite strong as the low looks to track just south of Milwaukee. This would keep most of the accumulating snow from La Crosse to Tomah To Stevens Point, Wausau, and Crivitz. Those areas could pick up as much as 8 inches of snow. One other thing I wanted to throw in for good measure tonight. Jeremy hinted at this last night. The return of the signature storm. This is just starting to show up on the long-range GFS. Here is a tease at what could be ahead. Keep in mind this is a long way away, but it would certainly match nicely in the LRC.
Pretty amazing. Have a great night.